4 statements by Federal President Guy Parmelin in fact-checking

Analysis

Is the federal president telling the truth? 4 statements by Guy Parmelin in fact-checking

Guy Parmelin drew attention over the weekend with one of his first interviews as the new federal president. Some statements caused red heads, especially among epidemiologists. 5 quotes from Parmelin on fact checking.

The following five statements are excerpts from the interview Sonntagsblick conducted with Guy Parmelin on January 3, 2021.

“Many too The specialists were surprisedwhen the falls suddenly came back up so fast. “

With this statement, Federal President Parmelin refers to the increase in corona cases in the fall. Before that, he admits that the situation was underestimated from July to September. The virus was not only away for politics, but also for science in the summer.

Who exactly Parmelin refers to by “specialist”, he does not explain. If you are referring to the scientists of the Crown Federal Task Force, then your statement is incorrect. Because the working group already warned on July 3 with an alert of the rapid increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections.

“It is extremely important to react quickly,” the working group wrote in Policy Brief, adding: “If measures are introduced too late, it will be more difficult to control the epidemic and avoid a second wave.”

But experts outside the task force are also defending themselves against Parmelin’s statement. “None of the experts were surprised,” writes Isabella Eckerle, a virologist and director of the Geneva Center for Viral Diseases, on Twitter. Many experts had “convinced their mouths off the ground” over the summer. And Berne epidemiologist Christian Althaus also criticized the fact that the Federal Council apparently did not take the task force’s warnings seriously over the summer.

Only epidemiologist Marcel Salathé told the SonntagsZeitung in September that things were “looking very good” in Switzerland regarding the virus.

“Nobody, not even science, can tell politicians what measures they are taking problems within three or four weeks resolved would. “

With this statement, Parmelin explains that no one has the ideal solution up their sleeve. That may be true. But, in turn, the federal scientific working group presented a fairly precise schedule in mid-November with milestones through January 2021.

“With these scientifically based milestones, the task force wants to have a realistic goal for the population in mind,” Marcel Tanner, epidemiologist and member of the task force, told SRF in November. Tanner also added that it would be necessary to tighten the measures if the numbers slowly stagnate or if the situation worsens again.

The schedule lasts more than four weeks. However, the working group tried to show in a scientifically sound and realistic way in what time period the problems could be solved if the population complied with the measures. And he also came out in favor of stricter measures if milestones are missed.

Parmelin’s statement cannot be considered completely incorrect, as no one can solve the problems in four weeks. However, the Federal Council working group repeatedly provides clear information on what measures can be used to contain infections and in what period of time.

We did not do everything right. No country I can say that. “

Switzerland is certainly not the only country that made mistakes in the fight against the pandemic. However, there are countries that can claim that they did almost everything right.

In New Zealand As of today, 25 people have died from Corona. In the island state with just under five million inhabitants, only 2,181 people were infected and a second wave was also prevented. New Zealanders have succeeded mainly thanks to the strict measures of the Crown.

In early June, the country was crown-free, the measures were relaxed. One hundred days later, four new corona cases were known in Auckland. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern then sent Auckland’s 1.7 million residents into a two-week lockdown and also cut off the city from the rest of New Zealand. Then 179 people were infected with Corona, then the second wave in New Zealand was defeated.

Also in the island republic Taiwan the threat posed by the virus was recognized very early. The disease protection authority there was already activated in late December 2019 when a patient in Wuhan was diagnosed with a virus similar to Sars. Statistics show seven deaths and 812 infected people for Taiwan.

It is true that the two examples mentioned are island states and not a landlocked country like Switzerland. However, Parmelin’s statement that no country can claim that it failed to control the pandemic is incorrect.

«In two or three years we will make a global balance: what explanations are there for them? Excess mortality? Our The population is one of the oldest in the world.Does that play a role? “

Parmelin says the excess mortality could possibly be explained by Switzerland’s high average age. According to the German statistical portal Statista, the average Swiss population is 42.64 years old. Although Belgians are on average younger (41.7), their excess death rate in November is higher than in Switzerland (see graph below).

The same can be seen in France: the country’s excess death rate was higher in March than in Switzerland, although the French are on average almost a year younger than the Swiss.

Therefore, it is not enough to explain excess mortality simply by the age of the population. Furthermore, Switzerland does not have by far the oldest population in the world. Japan (mean age 48.4 years), Italy (47.3 years) and Martinique (47) top the Statista list by a wide margin over Switzerland.