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What if the England virus mutation prevails in Switzerland? The Covid Working Group of the Federal Council presents a spectacular graphic.
We are “in the high-risk zone,” says Martin Ackermann, chairman of the Covid 19 Science Task Force.
Photo: Peter Schneider (Keystone)
Just five days after a tense Crown Christmas, the cantons are sending signals of relaxation.
Six cantons that had previously closed their ski areas will reopen them on Wednesday. The situation has stabilized, the situation in hospitals has eased: This is the tenor in Glarus, Uri, Obwalden and Nidwalden, as well as the two Appenzells.
These cantons are also based on the so-called R-value, which according to the latest calculations has been reduced to 0.81. This number is also a sign of relaxation., although uncertainRead more here).
However, the completely different signs come from the federal Bern. There, the Covid scientific working group of the Federal Council presented a horror scenario on Tuesday.
The curve shoots up abruptly
The background is Britain’s Sars-CoV-2 mutation, which was first detected in Switzerland last week. According to previous knowledge, this mutation is between 40 and 70 percent more contagious than the old strain of the virus (Read more about the latest study here.).
In England, this mutation took hold in a very short time. It was only in mid-December that Britain informed the World Health Organization (WHO) about the mutation, and Today it is already detected in a large number of new corona infections in the London metropolitan area, says Task Force Chair Martin Ackermann. Hospitalizations in London doubled from December 16 to December 22, in just one week.
What does this mean for Switzerland?
The working group created a calculation model. The dashed orange line on your graph shows the worst case scenario: contagion figures that, should the British virus variant spread, skyrocket from the beginning of March. Already in April there could be more than 20,000 new infections per day.
The working group attaches great importance to the fact that this graph is not a forecast, but a simplifying model calculation. Its purpose: the graph should show how much more dramatically the new variant can increase the number of infections than the previous virus strain. “The new variant has a rapid and immediate influence on the infection process,” says Ackermann.
The calculation is based on the current number of infections (approximately 4000 new infections per day). It is also based on the assumption that around one percent of those infected with corona in Switzerland are already carriers of the new virus.
The effect of the mutated virus will be much less dramatic if Switzerland manages to keep the breeding number at 0.8 in the coming weeks (blue dashed curve). However, if the R value is only slightly higher (0.9), there could be a dramatic exponential growth in the number of infections (orange dashed curve).
How many already have the virus altered?
So far, only five infections with the new virus have been detected in the Swiss laboratory. Another South African mutation was found in two other samples. To find these new virus strains, corona tests must be thoroughly analyzed, in technical jargon: sequenced. Due to limited laboratory capabilities, according to the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG), currently only 200 to 300 samples can be sequenced per day; this corresponds to only about five percent of all corona positive tests.
That means: in 95 percent of positive samples, the mutation is not even currently looking for. And that, in turn, means that the probability that there are already more people carrying the virus than the five discovered is very high.
Target size: 0.8
In this context, the Covid task force warns against a hasty easing of corona measures. Ackermann puts it this way: even with its current contagion figures, Switzerland is moving “into a dangerous risk zone”. For special effects like the mutated virus there is no “margin of safety”.
Therefore, the working group calls on politicians to do everything possible to ensure that Switzerland can leave the “high-risk zone” as soon as possible. The task force recommends that politicians expand the central office as a possible new measure. He also suggests postponing the start of classes to January 11. This could prevent children from bringing corona infections they got from a family Christmas to their class.
The first goal should be to keep the R value at 0.8, according to the working group. And secondly, one has to test and sequence even more rigorously to contain the new virus variants in a specific way.
This message has reached the federal government. The goal, says BAG representative Patrick Mathys, is to “significantly increase” sequencing capabilities.
