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“We always knew that winter 20/21 would be difficult,” Federal Councilor Alain Berset told the media. However, this was not the first time that the state government was surprised by the current evolution of this pandemic. Even after almost a year of pandemic experience, the Federal Office of Public Health is still not working with scenarios and models with which the government could prepare for possible developments.
Second wave not expected
The first violent spring wave was followed by a carefree summer, and the numbers soon rose again. Flat, but a little steeper every week. The second wave had started long ago when Bern still claimed that, contrary to all the laws of mathematics, growth would not be exponential but linear. Autumn scenarios? Nothing.
But the numbers grew faster and faster. On October 18, the Federal Council met for a crisis meeting on Sunday. Switzerland decided on what had long been a matter of course in neighboring countries: ban on meetings, mandatory mask, recommendation to work from home. For the first time, the situation in the Bundesbern was misjudged and acted upon at the last minute.
I breathed too early
The October measures worked. In early November, the strong growth turned into an equally steep decline. Relief. But again one felt in a false sense of security. Things are looking very good for Switzerland now. Even the experts were optimistic. The goal is for the numbers to continue to decline at this rate. Reduce by half every two weeks. 1000 more infections by Christmas. A scenario indeed. But not the only possible one, as we know it today.
In mid-November, the downward curve flattened and then changed. The number of new infections has increased again every day since the beginning of December. The measures taken by the German-speaking cantons in particular were evidently insufficient. There was no stage for this development.
Work with scenarios
The hubbub erupted when the Federal Council concluded that it had to take the reins. The federal government gave the cantons an ultimatum, which could no longer wait for it to expire. Instead, he announced new measures. What offended individual cantons. The consultation turned into a sham.
Currently, the numbers in Switzerland are doubling every few weeks. One can easily imagine the further course of the curve until the measures taken today go into effect. The federal government could, would have to prepare for the subsequent course of the pandemic using scenarios. Instead, one relies on the principle of hope. Unfortunately, other unpleasant surprises cannot be ruled out.
Erwin schmid
Editor of the Bundeshaus, SRF
