Is there a deal or not? – The Brexit drama is about to be faced



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Negotiators want to finally achieve clarity by Monday at the latest. Are Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen setting the course today?

Time is of the essence: Boris Johnson expects a Brexit deal by Monday.

Time is of the essence: Boris Johnson expects a Brexit deal by Monday.

Keystone

In the Brexit dispute, so many ultimatums and deadlines have been exhausted that even negotiators sometimes joke that the new deadlines can hardly be taken seriously. But now it really should be that far: according to information from negotiating circles, the London and Brussels teams have agreed to probe as finally as possible this weekend whether a deal on a free trade deal can be reached. By Monday at the latest, it should be clear: is there a deal or not?

The result is open, but in any case the Brexit drama faces a showdown. On Friday night, the two main negotiators, Lord David Frost and Michel Barnier, announced in a joint statement that the talks would be halted to inform policy makers about the status of the negotiations. The conditions for an agreement have not yet been met, there are still significant differences in the three known trouble spots.

Two reasons for the deadline

The EU fishermen’s quota in British waters, the requirements for fair competition between UK and EU companies and the question of how disputes should be resolved remain controversial. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen want to make a phone call on Saturday afternoon. The two are expected to try to set the political course for the conclusion of the negotiations.

Time is running out. The UK left the EU at the end of January, but the real break is yet to come: the transition phase of Brexit ends at the end of the year, during which the UK remains part of the EU internal market and the customs union. If a trade deal is not concluded in December, tariffs and customs controls will be introduced starting in January, to the detriment of the economy, including Germany.

There are two main reasons for the Monday deadline. First: Johnson could dispense with a new provocation from the EU. The UK government has announced that it will review its controversial single market law on Monday. The House of Lords had removed passages because they would void the current exit treaty with the EU, drawing the ire of Brussels. But Johnson wants to reverse this review in the House of Commons. If there were a free trade agreement, that would no longer be necessary.

Second, the fact that EU heads of state and government meet on Thursday for the EU summit speaks in favor of the Monday deadline. Until then, the 27 governments would have enough time to examine a possible deal and finally approve it. After that, the European Parliament and the House of Commons would have to accept the treaty. In reality, the European Parliament can only approve the agreement if it has been previously translated into the 24 official languages ​​of the EU. That would take too long, even if a special session were called on December 28.

“From a tragedy to a farce”

If Parliament and all member states agree, the treaty could, as an exception, be initially adopted only in its English version. Or it could enter into force provisionally in January without the approval of Parliament; the deputies would give their consent later. Probably the most important trade agreement in the history of the EU would only be considered very superficially by the representatives of the people. Consequently, they are upset: “Brexit has gone from being a tragedy to a farce,” says SPD MEP Bernd Lange. “On average, it took us 136 days in parliament for commercial contracts,” complains the president of the trade committee.

At the same time, this flexibility means that talks could continue after Monday. Diplomats and officials in London and Brussels like to point out that there is only one really tough deadline: December 31. And neither side wants to be the first to rise from the negotiating table and expose themselves to the accusation of being to blame for the collapse of the talks.

The question of who will have the money if it fails is already under discussion. A British government representative on Thursday accused EU chief negotiator Barnier of overloading the talks with “new elements”. London blames pressure from the French government for this. On the other hand, EU diplomats say there have been no new demands.

What is clear, however, is that some governments are getting nervous and fear that Barnier is making too many concessions to the British. France’s European Minister Clement Beaune warned on Friday: “If the treaty is not good, we will stop it. Any country can veto. “

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