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The presidential question has been resolved. But the two great parties face great challenges.
Fighting Democrats? The primaries were marked by wing battles between the left and moderate Democrats, and the party seemed divided. But: “Joe Biden is on the right track to put both wings under one roof,” believes political scientist Christiane Lemke. Biden has extensive experience and close contacts with all political groups. His previous nominations for government office have shown that he wants to take into account the concerns of the left, as well as the party’s green wing.
Obsolete politicians: “You can’t talk about age, even if the majority of young people voted for Biden and Kamala Harris,” says the political scientist. Therefore: “A generational change is imminent.” In the next four years it will be clear whether Harris can inherit Biden.
Realignment needed: According to Lemke, the Democrats will have to reform. In recent decades they have trusted that minority groups have always voted democratically. But that is not so clear in the future. Furthermore, Democrats would have to better manage the new ecology and climate issues and take younger generations more seriously: “During the Trump years, many protest and initiative movements were formed. They will demand more influence. ”Consequently, the Democratic Party will change significantly over the next four years.
Challenge for Republicans too
The party is by no means depressed: “The Republican Party is currently in relatively good shape,” says German political scientist and American expert Philipp Adorf. He points out the results by no means bad in the elections in early November: in the Senate, Republicans will likely retain a majority, in the House of Representatives they were able to win seats. In the two-year by-elections, there will even be a majority in this chamber, according to Adorf. In addition, Republicans were also able to win in some states in the United States.
Much depends on Trump: If Trump continues to play a role in politics and wants to run again for president in four years at the most, there is little the GOP leadership can do, Adorf said. “In this case, other Republican actors would have to postpone their presidential ambitions until 2028.” Because a former president, who has been praised by practically all party members for four years, challenging in 2024 would be very difficult, says the American expert.
Reform postponed: If Trump continues with the policy, a renewal of the Republican Party would be blocked for the time being. “Trumpism,” which is characterized by anti-elitist populism and the fight against immigration, could not be overcome at the moment, Adorf believes. Openness to Latinos and other minorities, which is actually necessary for the future of the party, would hardly be possible with Trump. That could become a problem for the party: “Because it is becoming increasingly difficult to win the US election with only white voters without a college degree,” Adorf says.