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Group Initiative: Opponents Are Catching Up – 3 Insights On The Hot Voting Battle
The decision on the group’s initiative could be stricter than expected. According to the two surveys by SRG and Tamedia, opponents are increasing. Three ideas about the hottest electoral battle of the year.
In the Corporate Responsibility Initiative (KVI) voting campaign, the waves are running wild. The referendum requires Swiss companies to be held accountable for human rights and environmental violations caused by their subsidiaries or economically dependent companies abroad. The supporters and opponents of the final mobilization still have ten days. Just in time for the final push, the second SRG trend survey from research institute GFS Bern and the trend survey from publisher Tamedia are released.
Starters are ahead, but lead is melting
In both polls, proponents are ahead. If the vote had already taken place on November 8, according to SRG’s trend survey, the yes to the KVI would have been clear. 57 percent of respondents are decided or rather in favor of the initiative, 41 percent are decided or rather against. In the first survey, the advantage was 30 percent, now it is 16 percent.
That means the opponents have caught up. Or as it is called in technical jargon: No trend. The Tamedia poll paints a similar picture. The lead fell from 57 to 51 percent.
The initiative is losing approval from CVP voters and non-partisan voters
The initiators did their best to emphasize the broad support for the initiative. Outstanding exponents of the political center have a special weight in the posters. For example, the former Councilor of States Eugen David (CVP) in St. Gallen or Peter Bieri (CVP) in Zug. Former National Councilor Ursula Haller (BDP) has a prominent representation in Bern.
Both surveys, however, determine a strong polarization. SRG’s trend survey states that the pattern of conflict corresponds to the familiar image of a left-wing initiative that is being fought by the center-right. It is noteworthy that the CVP has been caught by a non-trend. CVP voter approval fell from 56 percent to 47 percent.
In the Tamedia poll, the percentage of CVP voters who voted in favor in the last poll was below 50 percent; today it is still 43 percent. The study authors see the cause of opponents catching up less with the CVP than with the FDP and SVP, whose voters, according to the current Tamedia poll, are more firmly against the referendum. According to the SRG poll, opponents also scored particularly well among nonpartisan voters.
Voting is decided in rural cantons
The two polls show a very similar picture of who supports the initiative. Find greater support among women, young people, as well as in cities and large agglomerations. The result of the vote is open in both polls.. GFS Bern states that the current majority in favor and the trend are not contradictory.
The fact that the opinion is already well advanced could speak of a yes. However: a majority of the electorate is not enough for the initiators to be successful. You also need the stand more. Analysis of the available data is fraught with uncertainty, but shows that the central and southeastern cantons of Switzerland tend to be important, according to the SRG trend survey.
Meanwhile, the Tamedia survey authors conclude that the number of booths is the highest hurdle for KVI than most people: even if the initiative achieves a 53 percent yes percentage, it still open if it also reaches the number of stands or not. This also clearly indicates where the committees will begin the final mobilization in the remaining ten days: in the rural cantons.
