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Biden or Trump? There can be only one. Image: watson / keystone / shutterstock
Trump vs. Biden: That’s the state of the latest polls and forecasts.
In the United States, polling stations are open. Most polls and forecasting models suggest that Joe Biden will win. But the matter is not very clear.
For many people in the United States, it is the most important presidential election of their lives: today it will be decided whether Donald Trump will remain in office or whether Democrat Joe Biden will remove him from the White House. Or maybe not. If the outcome is tight, there is the risk of wild disputes in court and possibly violent riots.
In most polls and forecasting models, however, Biden leads the way. Sometimes they point to a landslide, a landslide victory. But some confusion remains. Here is a summary of the most recent status of the most viewed forecasts:
Survey
National polls have the stigma that the president of the United States is not elected directly, but by the Electoral College (Hillary Clinton received almost three million more votes than Donald Trump in 2016). Results are more important, especially in swing states, where the race is close. Therefore, we limit ourselves to two surveys.
Trump’s “bull market” Fox News sees Joe Biden in the lead with 52:44 percent in the latest poll of potential voters. On CNN, his “arch rival,” Biden’s lead is slightly higher at 52:42 percent. The Atlanta broadcaster also dares to predict the Electoral College: Biden gets 279 votes (270 are needed).
Very clear policy
The politically neutral media company receives a lot of attention, also because it is cautious in its cross-sectional polls and forecasts. In 2016, it wasn’t all bad: Nationally, Clinton had a 3.2 percent lead on Election Day (in fact, it was 2.1). In voters he led with 203 to 163 votes.
Our live ticker for the elections:
In 2020, RCP will also not venture into branches. Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump with 6.7 percent. At Electoral College, the race is open in twelve states, so Biden / Harris get 216 and Trump / Pence 125 votes. In the “tight” model with no swing states, the picture is clearer: Biden wins with 319-219 votes.
Five thirty eight
Statistician Nate Silver achieved cult status with his self-developed prediction model because he had predicted Barack Obama’s electoral victories in 2008 and 2012 almost to the state. In 2016, however, he was quite wrong: On Election Day, he calculated that Hillary Clinton would win 71.4%: 28.6%.
The criticisms of Silver were partially overstated, because at nearly 30 percent, Donald Trump had a considerable chance to turn the tide. Now it looks worse: Fivethirtyeight comes in the current model at 89: 10 percent for Biden (the rest is fading). But Nate Silver cautions that the race is “complicated.” Because 10 percent is nothing.
The Economist
The British business magazine risks making a forecast for this year’s US presidential election for the first time. The latest finding is crystal clear: Joe Biden will win the Electoral College with a 96 percent chance. Trump only reaches 4 percent. But the creators of this model wonder if they are exaggerating Biden’s opportunity.
270toWin
The nonpartisan website compiles surveys and models from nine organizations. In the latest forecast for the 2020 election, Joe Biden’s 279 electoral votes are above the “magic” mark of 270. Donald Trump has 163 votes. The remaining 85 are in five undecided states and an unclear constituency in the state of Maine.
Crystal ball
Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia is one of the most respected political scientists in the United States. He developed a forecasting model called Crystal Ball. In 2016 he made a serious mistake when calculating the victory of Hillary Clinton with 322 to 216 votes of the voters. “What can you say? We blew it,” Sabato said to the flop.
However, a look at the 2020 crystal ball reveals an equally clear forecast: Joe Biden will win the election with 321: 217. Larry Sabato justifies the forecast with the fact that Biden’s leadership was largely stable during the election campaign. . Due to the global pandemic, Trump is also in a significantly weaker position than in 2016.
Trafalgar Group
Pollster Robert Cahaly hit the mark in 2016 when he predicted Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton almost accurately. That made him a Trump fan favorite. This year, his Trafalgar Group sees the president at the helm again. It will reach more than 270 voters, Cahaly told Newsweek.
In the professional world, Cahaly is a controversial figure. Its methods are considered opaque and unreliable. “People are not being honest with pollsters,” Robert Cahaly defended himself on CNN last week. You can point out that it was also able to achieve a high hit rate in the 2018 midterm elections.
Primary model
German political scientist Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University in New York has developed a model that determines the winner of a presidential election based on the results and enthusiasm of the primaries. His forecast for 2020 is clear: Donald Trump has a 91 percent chance of success. Joe Biden only got 9 percent.
In hindsight, his method has led to the correct result in 25 of 27 elections since 1912, Norpoth claims. The only exceptions are the extremely close elections of 1960 and 2000. However, the question arises what role the primaries will play in a year in which the crown pandemic overshadows almost everything.
13 keys to the White House
Political scientist Allan Lichtman of the American University in Washington is considered a superstar among political judges. Using his “13 keys to the White House,” a combination of various parameters, Lichtman has accurately predicted every election winner since 1984, including Donald Trump four years ago. In 2020, however, he will bet on Joe Biden.
In general, there is a clear trend for Joe Biden. Pollsters and analysts have learned from the mistakes of 2016 and refined their methods. But Covid-19 and Donald Trump’s contradictory personality make the race an exciting one to the finish. Mobilization must be decisive.
Leftist filmmaker and icon Michael Moore is skeptical. He predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. He doesn’t want to compromise this year, but he’s convinced Trump voters often hide their true intentions in polls. You have to cut Biden’s lead in half, “and then you’re within the margin of error.”
