Corona is the driver of existing conflicts

The NDB analysis warns that Switzerland may one day have to choose between a “normal zone” dominated by China or the United States.

Peter Klaunzer / Keystone

Everything is possible in the next few years. The end of geopolitical uncertainty does not seem to be in sight. This is the impression left by reading the 2020 status report of the Federal Intelligence Service (NDB). One focus of the analysis was on the consequences of the corona pandemic. This, the NDB writes, “provided further evidence of the end of a world order that was heavily shaped by the United States, its system of alliances and the institutions of American influence.”

In plain language: the coronavirus is likely accelerating the end of US hegemony and has revealed the new conditions. The withdrawal of the Trump administration from the World Health Organization (WHO) sabotages the basic idea of ​​collective security and at the same time reveals signs of weakness of the Western superpower vis-à-vis its new rival China. The tour in Beijing, on the other hand, demonstrated cooperation with the international community.

Is Switzerland between the United States and China?

Well-organized aid flights from China to Italy and other European countries at the height of the first corona wave shed a particularly bright light on the changing world situation. The raisin bombers of the 21st century come from the opposite direction to those of post-WWII. The West depends on medical supplies from the Far East. In fact, this is part of the normality of today’s supply chain. At times, Swiss also practically installed an airlift to China to bring masks and other materials to Switzerland.

The photos of doctors from China, which were distributed in mid-March through the Twitter account of Chinese government spokeswoman Hua Chunying, literally demonstrated the West. Even if Beijing’s aid is objectively insignificant compared to support for the EU, for example, China was able to establish a point in competition between the systems, much like the drastic measures taken after the corona virus outbreak. The poison of authoritarian temptation challenges liberal democracies, especially in times of crisis.

In its latest status report, the Swiss intelligence service assesses as questionable “whether a stable order will develop in the foreseeable future.” The NDB analysts describe a possible development as a new bipolar as in the Cold War. The United States and China could divide the world into exclusive strategic zones of influence. This would have an impact on technological development. One consequence would be different standards, for example for 5G networks. The system battle between Huawei and Western providers is already underway.

The FIS speaks of two standard spaces that could result from a world dominated by China and the United States. This would probably also apply to the political contrast between the Western liberal model and China’s state capitalism. According to the intelligence service’s conclusion, Switzerland could in the future be forced to limit itself to one of these areas. In view of Switzerland’s freedom of action, this is not a pleasant prospect. Thanks to the free trade agreement with China, Switzerland can now afford a degree of independence from the EU.

What does the new power politics mean for Switzerland?

Today, however, the world is multipolar. In addition to the US and China, other states also compete for influence and power. The Bern management report also deals with the other actors in this new power politics. The focus is on Russia, which, in the words of the NDB, continues to pursue the goal of acting on an equal footing with the United States and establishing its own sphere of influence. Russia also uses military means to achieve its objectives, notes the FIS.

According to the analysis by the Bern intelligence service, the broad lines of Russian security policy withstood the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic. Key personnel in Moscow are stable and dominated by foreign policy hawks. Furthermore, leadership controls much of the economy. The NDB writes that it can strengthen the resilience of the system. This also appears to be the Russian protective factor against Western sanctions.

The NDB describes the government of Turkish President Erdogan, who among other things has lost the city of Istanbul to the opposition, as less stable. Furthermore, the Turkish economy was struggling even before the Crown. However, the management report excludes the fact that some of the competition does support Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ideas.

Furthermore, Turkey currently appears to be a bigger troublemaker than Russia. The war in the Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also the clashes in the eastern Mediterranean or the clear participation in the Libyan civil war make Ankara and Moscow rivals. The mutual stay on the front line in Syria is marked and is not a sign of a Russian-Turkish agreement. In recent weeks it has also been shown that France is also clearly opposed to Turkey, after all a partner of NATO. Alliances and connections have become even more volatile than the FIS describes.

First jihadist terrorist attack in Switzerland?

What is also missing in the part about the rebirth of power politics in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean area are the consequences of security policy for Switzerland. Although the FIS speaks of a deterioration in the situation in the strategic environment, it gives little indication of what this means in concrete terms for security in the core of Western Europe. Name the difficulties of international cooperation, which are also aggravated by the pandemic, or possible migratory movements.

A much more dangerous option would be to merge the various disputes into one great conflict. The neighboring countries Germany, France and Italy would be directly involved as NATO countries. It would even be possible for individual members of the alliance to have different interests when dealing with Turkey or Russia. The possible consequences of such a situation for Switzerland are worth anticipating.

The FIS will be more specific about the threat of terrorism, which has lost some of its attention due to the pandemic, but still represents a significant risk. Currently, the majority of attacks are carried out by lone perpetrators with knives. What is remarkable is the intelligence service’s assessment that the knife attack in Morges (VD) in September this year is believed to be the first terrorist attack with jihadist motives.

The NDB’s analysis of the Islamic State (IS) testifies to the deep understanding of service in the field of jihadism. Although the Islamic State is defeated and weakened militarily, according to the NDB it still has significant resources. IS 2.0 is strongly regionally fragmented. After the targeted assassination of ISIS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, various subgroups swore allegiance to the new leadership.

The FIS shows how these provinces of the terrorist organization are gaining strength. ISIS was able to expand its influence to include Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. An immediate danger to Switzerland is not yet recognized. Also in this area, the pandemic could aggravate the situation, as the FIS points out. If the crisis persists, it could weaken the state and economic structures of the states south and north of the Sahara and lead people into the clutches of the IS branches.

From the point of view of the FIS, the coronavirus is not a “game changer”, but a relevant engine that reinforces and probably also accelerates current trends in the international system. This is what Federal Councilor Viola Amherd wrote in the foreword to the management report. Indeed, it is imperative to think more seriously about Switzerland’s security and possible post-crisis crises.