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“Intensive care units are full in 2 to 3 weeks” – Task Force calls for these 10 steps
Martin Ackermann, head of the Scientific Working Group, spoke clearly Friday afternoon: Based on your scenarios, places in intensive care units will be full no later than November 18, unless something fundamentally changes in the increase.
The 3 scenarios
The working group specifically envisions three scenarios for the occupancy of intensive care units (blue, red and yellow). In the red scenario, admissions to intensive care units develop as they currently are, which means that they double in seven days. The blue scenario assumes 5 days, the yellow one is 10.
It turns out that in the worst case the intensive care units will be full on November 5, in the best case calculated on November 18:
The calculations assume constant occupancy for non-COVID19 beds (dark gray) and non-emergency interventions (light gray).
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Current measures are not close enough
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At the press conference, Martin Ackermann, head of the Scientific Working Group, chose clear words. He was asked if the current measures were insufficient. Your answer:
For this reason, the working group has prepared a catalog of measures based on its current management report.
These are the 10 measures requested by the working group:
- The use of masks by young people and adults in all indoor areas and in crowded outdoor areas (markets, etc.).
- Telecommuting (home office) for all employees for whom this is possible.
- The closure of recreational and entertainment facilities in tight, poorly ventilated indoor spaces where conditions allow transmission of the coronavirus between people in close contact
- Restrict private meetings, p. Eg B. less than 10 people.
- Restrict public gatherings, p. Eg B. less than 50 people.
- Restriction of restaurant and bar opening hours, p. Eg B. at 9 pm
- Cessation of activities with a high risk of spreading the coronavirus, p. Eg B. Sports with direct contact, singing or with wind instruments.
- Switch to online education only at all institutions of secondary and higher education for which such education is possible.
- Increase in the number of coronavirus testing centers and the number of contact tracers.
- Periodic testing of employees in high-risk environments.
Ackermann adds to the PK: “We recommend implementing the measures before March or April so that the yo-yo effect can also be circumvented.”
The PC summary:
The full status report of the working group:
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