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A new study on the death rate from coronavirus infection has even stunned experts. According to research results from Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis, this is on average about 0.23 percent, lower than previous estimates. Initial data from China once estimated mortality at 3.4 percent. Meanwhile, an average of one percent is assumed.
The study could give the impression that everything is much less bad than it was supposed. But the numbers have a flaw, as the “Spiegel” writes.
Number of unreported cases included
Because Ioannidis worked with the so-called infectious mortality (IFR) in his research. This indicates how high the proportion of people who died is compared to all infections; this also includes an unreported number of infections that have yet to be discovered.
The reason: a coronavirus infection can also present without symptoms. Also, comprehensive testing is not done in all countries, so many infections are not even recorded. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), twenty times more people worldwide could have been infected than has been proven. That is why the IFR percentage is so low.
In addition to IFR, there is also the so-called case fatality (CFR). It indicates how high the proportion of deaths in total is – and that is the deciding word – known Infections is. The Robert Koch Institute, for example, also refers to this value when publishing the daily management report in Germany. And that is why it is much older.
It depends on many factors
The objective of the epidemiologist Ioannidis was not to determine a worldwide valid mortality from infection; something like that would not be possible. Because mortality can vary from one country to another and depends on many factors. For example, it matters whether it is primarily older people who get infected, how good the medical care is, or how high is the proportion of people with prior illnesses in the population.
The Ioannidi study is a meta-study, one of which is evaluated from several existing studies. The mortality due to infection in the scientific articles that he evaluated fluctuated between zero and 1.63 percent. (support)
The corona virus is currently occupying the whole world and every day there are news. All current information on the subject is available on the coronavirus ticker.
