Positive Trump: what if the US president fails?

What really happens if Donald Trump fails? 5 scenarios

The coronavirus had long ago reached the White House. Trump’s valet and Vice President Mike Pence’s press officer contracted the virus in May. But now the president has also been affected: Donald Trump and his wife Melania tested positive for Covid-19 on Thursday.

What if the president can no longer govern? What if his vice, Mike Pence, was also absent at the same time?

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The Bloomberg news agency has addressed these issues. The result: everything is possible, from a small temporary interruption to a great chaos with a leadership vacuum.

In the US, the order of the charge is really clear in every situation. However, a troublesome scenario could arise. And that has to do above all with a term: disability

Scenario 1: Trump is infected, but is legally competent

Let’s start with the current case: President Donald Trump is infected, but he is able to serve. Government business continues as usual.

Still, markets and stock prices would almost certainly fall on news of Trump’s infection, said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk consultancy, in May. And she’s right: Trump’s positive corona test has sent stock markets around the world and also in Switzerland tumbling downhill. Just a month before the US presidential elections, there is growing nervousness, it is said unanimously from the trade.

Bremmer believes, however, that the downward trend could also be mild: “If Trump gets infected and has to isolate himself, but remains responsible for the government and tweets like crazy, that will have minimal effects in my opinion.”

Scenario 2: Trump is infected and declares himself incapacitated

In the second scenario, Trump’s situation worsens. For example, he should be put into an artificial coma. In this case, you can transfer authority to your vice president. Once recovered, you can declare that you return to the exercise of your rights and duties. Authority would return to him.

This process is regulated in the 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution. It was last used in 2007, when George W. Bush transferred authority to Vice President Dick Cheney during a colonoscopy. Formally, this happened through two letters, the first that Bush wrote at 7.16 am, in the second at 9.21 am he declared himself fit for the position again.

Scenario 3: Trump becomes infected and falls into a coma before declaring himself incapacitated

In this case, Vice President Mike Pence, along with a majority in the cabinet, could declare Donald Trump incapacitated before Congress. The authority would then be temporarily transferred to Pence.

There has never been a case like this in the history of the United States. After the 1981 assassination attempt on then-President of the United States, Ronald Reagan, current Vice President George Bush refused to formally assume office, although Reagan was operated under anesthesia and was in hospital for ten days.

Scenario 4: Trump and Pence die in office

In the highly unlikely event that both the president and vice president die, there is also a roadmap. “In this case, the line of succession is clear,” Ilya Somin, a law professor at George Mason University, told Bloomberg: “Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, would take over.”

Scenario 5: Trump and Pence are disabled

That is the complicated scenario. Constitutional experts warn that if both Trump and Pence were incapacitated by Covid-19, chaos could erupt. The law offers little clarity to resolve such a scenario.

“It would be a shit show that could lead to a total collapse of the Constitution,” says Brian Kalt, a law professor at Michigan State University. “I would go to court immediately and you would have to decide what to do very quickly. Because not knowing who the president is can be extremely dangerous for the country. “

According to Kalt, the problem is that the constitution does not provide a defined procedure to determine the incapacity of a president. This could lead to an office dispute with Democrat Pelosi declaring herself third in line for the presidency, even if Trump and Pence (or their attorneys) are deemed fit for duty. Kalt asked Congress to rewrite the succession law and place the Secretary of State (in Trump’s case, Mike Pompeo) in third place for the presidency.

What does the government say about it?

The White House says there is nothing to worry about. A spokeswoman said the government always had plans for such an eventuality, but declined to reveal what would happen if Trump and Pence couldn’t do their jobs at the same time.

It is not clear what exactly the White House is doing to prevent the virus from spreading. “There is a protocol for everything,” says David Axelrod, a former senior White House adviser to Barack Obama. “We do routine exercises to figure out what to do in the event of a terrorist attack or nuclear attack, but to be honest, I never expected a pandemic like the one the White House currently has.”

Some White House officials are growing concerned. Trump, Pence and their respective employees have had regular contact in recent weeks. Many of them did not wear a mask, which increases the likelihood that one or both of the headlines will become infected. “Pence should largely stay out of the White House, as Dick Cheney did after 9/11,” says a former Trump adviser.

How does Trump protect himself?

Donald Trump defied many precautionary measures requested by public health officials during the crisis. Observers say he wants to create a touch of normalcy: convince Americans to get out of the house and spend money to help the economy recover. His re-election may depend on it.

(cki)