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The number of cases is decreasing, is it due to the reduction in the number of tests? Image: keystone
5 statements on Corona’s current case numbers in fact-checking
The number of corona cases fell dramatically last week. Has the danger of a second wave now been avoided? Is the canton of Vaud on the mountain? Has federalism prevailed? Five statements in fact-checking.
“The danger of a second wave is avoided”
Compared to the previous week, the number of cases has decreased significantly. As of Wednesday by a whopping 23 percent. The number of hospitalizations has also decreased slightly, but a conclusion is not yet possible due to the expected late enrollment.
Late registrations are expected for the last days. Quelle: bag
The danger of a second wave appears to have diminished. This also has to do with the operation of contact tracing in the cantons. Epidemiologist Marcel Tanner told 20 Minuten: “The cantons are doing an excellent job, the number of cases could even increase a little without the contact tracing teams being overloaded.”
>> Coronavirus: All the news in the live ticker
550 new cases were reported Thursday, the highest value since April. With the colder days and the big events that have been allowed again since yesterday, the epidemiological situation may change rapidly again.
Less danger, but not avoided. Contact tracing tips the scale. Image: watson
“The number of cases has only decreased because fewer were tested”
That is partially true. In calendar week 38, an average of 11,801 tests were performed per day, in calendar week 39 only 9,652 tests were performed, representing a decrease of 18 percent.
The positivity rate also fell during this time, from 4.2 to 4.1 percent. However, the figures for the last two days already point to an uptrend. The positivity rate was 4.4 percent in each case.
Conclusion: partially agreed until the end of last week. In the meantime, however, both the number of cases and the rate of positivity are increasing again.
“The canton of Vaud has entered the curve”
The canton of Vaud has been the driver of the pandemic in Switzerland in recent weeks. The canton of western Switzerland was partly responsible for a third of all new infections each day. The tide seems to be slowly turning. The number of new infections is decreasing.
The Vaudois government has waited a long time with new crown measures. The canton was one of the first to introduce a mask requirement in stores, but it wasn’t long after that. The U-turn just two weeks ago: all clubs were closed, private events with more than 100 people are prohibited.
The measures seem to be paying off: the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants has gone from 228 to 165 in the last 14 days, although the incidence is very high. As a reminder: Switzerland designates a country as a risk zone if the incidence exceeds 60 cases per 100,000 cases. Therefore, the canton of Vaud still has a long way to go.
“Swiss federalism is like a patchwork quilt for the coronavirus”
Federalism is often praised, but rather criticized in relation to Corona. Just when the Federal Council lifted the extraordinary situation and gave the cantons the power to make decisions, there was an outcry.
For epidemiologist Marcel Tanner, however, the federal system is clearly advantageous in combating the coronavirus: “A decentralized system can better adapt measures to a region.”
In fact, Switzerland does well in an international comparison. For example, if you look across the border to traditionally centralized France, it looks very different. The number of infections there has skyrocketed since early September.
Another proof: France has been using federal measures since last week. On September 23, the country introduced a system that divides individual departments into five categories: from the green zone to the extended alarm zone and the health emergency.
In Paris and other cities such as Marseille, the second highest level of corona warning now applies. There, the prefect, that is, the department head, can take measures such as closing bars and restaurants.
The map shows which departments in France have a particularly high number of Corona cases (red). Image: French government
Marcel Tannner supports the measures in France, but believes that this should have happened much earlier. The same applies to Spain.
The multitude of different measures taken by cantons can be confusing, but they seem to be working. image: watson
“The number of cases increases when more people travel”
“Since the end of the summer vacation, travel activity has decreased significantly. As a result, Switzerland has imported fewer crown boxes from abroad. “Infection specialist Christian Garzoni said” 20 minutes. “The statement is true in itself, but it also offers an interpretation: that is, travel abroad and increased corona cases are related.
This interpretation can be falsified in the Canton of Zurich. Only after summer break is over the number of cases increased markedly.
Corona cases did not increase excessively during the summer holidays. Image: Canton of Zurich
Another reason for the falsification is that only a few of the people who tested positive declared they were infected abroad – as of mid-May that was 132 out of 3,717 people. More than 60 percent of those who tested positive could not name a specific site of infection.
The situation is similar in Aargau. Since contact tracing began in May, out of 1,424 positive cases, only 179 indicated travel abroad as the site of infection. As in the canton of Zurich, half do not know exactly where they were infected.
The two cantons do not show separately how many of the positive cases entered Switzerland from abroad shortly before. Therefore, there is no clear source according to which traveling abroad is related to more cases of corona.
