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Urs Bieri, co-director of the gfs.bern research institute, offers an assessment of Sunday’s vote. Image: watson
4 reasons why the decision on fighter jets was so tight
A week ago, Federal Councilwoman Viola Amherd looked like the clear winner in the vote for new fighter jets. With a 50.1 percent approval, the result is so tight that you have to recheck the books. GfS political scientist Urs Bieri explains the reasons for the meager decision.
At 5 p.m., the result was: With an 8,670 vote lead, Swiss voters said yes to the 6 billion loan for new combat aircraft. A minimal result after a solid majority was assumed for the proposal in the weeks leading up to the vote.
Urs Bieri, co-director of the gfs.bern research institute, gives 4 reasons why things got so difficult on Sunday.
>>> Click here to see the live voting ticker
The crown episode
Even without the corona pandemic, the question of fighter jet voting costs would definitely have been important, Bieri is sure. The discussion would have centered on whether you want to invest that much money in the Swiss Air Force. “In the end, it would have come down to a more comfortable majority for the 6 billion loan,” he says.
But with Corona, the result recently seemed tighter than expected. The fact that a small proportion of 50.1 percent agreed with fighter jets is probably due to the fact that many people have asked, “Can we really afford it?” In urban regions in particular, the pandemic was one of the reasons why yes was so close.
Critical women
It is not often that women vote differently than men. This can be seen with ecological problems, sometimes also with ethical and military problems, says GfS political scientist Bieri.
He estimates that the difference between the yes of men and women was 10 to 15 percentage points. “The fact that women are more critical when it comes to military issues was evident in the Gripen vote.” At the time, 47 percent of all women agreed to buy a fighter jet, compared to 53 percent of men. With such tight results, women could tip the scales. That wasn’t the case on Sunday, but according to Bieri, the women’s rejection was one of the reasons for the victory.
Cities on the left
There were several templates in which the well-known city / country trench opened, says Bieri. In particular, with the limitation initiative and the hunting law, the townspeople voted differently than the rural regions. “As a result, this trench is also noticeable in the fighter jet voting,” Bieri said.
Especially since the mobilization in the cities was above average. And because cities tend to be left-wing, left-wing squads could have benefited from more mobilization overall.
High mobilization
Which brings Bieri to the next point: Because turnout was extraordinarily high, it led to a tighter result. According to the latest results, 59 percent of all voters participated in the vote. The additional mobilization brought critics of the government to the polls.
However, it was not the opponents of the fighter jets that were able to mobilize the most, says Bieri. “It was a left-wing mobilization that also left its mark on the fighter jets and led to this narrow result.”
