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On average in the long run, health insurance premiums increased by about four percent each; this afternoon the premiums for 2021 will be presented.
There is no risk of a premium shock for health insurance premiums for next year, says health economist Stefan Felder of the University of Basel. The main reason: at the beginning of the corona pandemic, the Federal Council prohibited all operations and medical treatments that were not mandatory.
“Because many services cannot be used at all, we can expect even a small decrease in development costs,” says Felder.
Regional differences
Even after non-mandatory interventions were allowed again, fewer people went to the doctor or hospital, fearing a corona infection. That’s a second reason that costs are unlikely to increase much this year, in any case less than the long-term average of four percent. Other health economists see it that way too.
Premium growth is likely to vary from region to region: weakest in eastern Switzerland, which was little affected by the pandemic, and strongest in Ticino and Vaud, the worst hit.
Question mark behind 2021?
It is unclear how health care costs will develop over the next year. Stefan Felder believes that the pandemic will also curb rising costs in the coming year.
In contrast, freelance health economist Willy Oggier suspects that health costs will rise again more steeply in 2021 because many people have postponed treatment, which could lead to complications. “The fear here may be that people only go to the hospital later, when the diseases are more advanced and the treatments become more expensive.”
However, next year’s health insurance premiums will be announced first this afternoon, and on average they shouldn’t increase significantly.