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More companies were founded in the canton of Solothurn and Aargau in June than in June 2019. What appears to be a contradiction in view of the economic crisis is only at first glance.
For example, Deborah Winkelmann: Travel Dream Winkelmann, CHE-307.459.387, Titlisstrasse 2, 4665 Oftringen, single property (new entry). The young businessman from Oftringen was looking forward to this extract from the commercial register. Now all you need is a business account number and you can get started: according to the same statement, it now offers travel tips, as well as “associated services and operating platforms for restaurants, hotels and leisure activities.”
What sounds so boring and bureaucratic means a call to her: “At a career counseling session two years ago, I was told that I would thrive counseling people.” Now she hopes to win over clients with a personal offer: she offers to use a detailed wish list of her clients to explore travel destinations in Switzerland, select highlights and plan possible walks and activities. Her only property, Travel Dream Winkelmann, also has a folding tent trailer that she rents out. Full of entrepreneurial spirit, she says, “I’m excited to see what awaits me.”
After blocking, the curve shot up.
According to the same motto, 21,822 companies were registered in the commercial register in the first half of 2020. That is less than last year, because the number of emerging companies collapsed with the closure. But June figures from the Institute for Young Enterprises show that the number of company foundations has skyrocketed compared to the same month last year: just weeks after closing, 4,495 companies were founded in Switzerland, 850 more than in June. of 2019.
There are strong regional differences. It is striking that the number of companies has increased in the cantons of Aargau and Solothurn: the canton of Aargau enjoyed an increase in new registrations in the commercial register of four percentage points in June compared to the same month last year. In the canton of Solothurn it is two percentage points.
This trend stabilized somewhat in July and August, and the number of new companies in the canton of Aargau remained very high. Heiner Mikosch from the Center for Economic Research at ETH Zurich (KOF) explains that the crown-related decline in company foundations in the canton of Solothurn and at the level of Switzerland as a whole had not yet been fully offset in the canton of Aargau .
In comparison, the steepest drops are seen in French-speaking Switzerland and Ticino: -11 percentage points in Vaud, -7 percentage points in Geneva and even -21 percentage points in Ticino according to figures from the Institute for Young Companies. The KOF figures paint a similar picture.
Warns against excessive optimism
Regional differences are often not easy to explain. Heiner Mikosch dares to guess: it could be that cantons that have implemented particularly strict lockdown measures due to the difficult situation of the pandemic are registering more bankruptcies and fewer new companies. “But I can’t support that with a study.”
These increases could quickly be interpreted as positive signs: that optimism has returned to the economy, that the crisis has not slowed down entrepreneurship. However, Heiner Mikosch warns against this hasty conclusion: “I would interpret these results with great caution as a sign of recovery of confidence in economic development.” However, he admits that greater uncertainty could lead to lower business appetite. But the much more likely explanation for the strong rebound in June and the months that followed is largely accounting related: Business registration desks were closed for weeks. “What we are seeing is, to some extent, a recovery effect,” explains Heiner Mikosch.
This is also confirmed by Pascal Hollenstein, press spokesman for the Institute for Young Enterprises. But it also provides another possible explanation: the institute supports entrepreneurs in the creation of a company; Since the last few months, clients have felt the desire to secure a second pillar: “Today many people live in fear of their current job. So it may be obvious to turn your hobby into a profession or to undertake a delayed project. ”However, she cannot judge whether this factor actually works in Switzerland.
The dreaded wave of bankruptcies has yet to materialize
KOF is just as cautious when evaluating the course of bankruptcies. According to its report at the end of August, the dreaded wave of bankruptcies did not materialize, even if more companies filed for bankruptcy in June than the average for all comparable months in the last 20 years. “The figures on business start-ups and company failures need to be adjusted, which means that seasonal fluctuations, trends and structural breaks must be taken into account,” the researchers write.
In the graphs above, it can be seen that the start-up curves for the cantons of Solothurn and Aargau are still within the usual fluctuation ranges. The KOF, which obtains and analyzes its data from Bisnode D & B, explains the relatively smooth course of bankruptcy curves as an effect of economic measures to cushion the effects of the pandemic on the economy.
But this does not mean that there will be no bankruptcies: “Some bankruptcies have probably only been deferred by the program. Even after past economic crises, there was no abrupt, but rather gradual, increase in the frequency of bankruptcies. “
