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Researchers at the German Alfred Wenger Institute in Bremerhaven wanted to find out how bad things really are with the glaciers of Antarctica. Forecasts so far have painted an imprecise picture. For a clear forecast, 14 research groups compared their calculation models. The result makes you swallow empty!
Research groups anticipate a 9-centimeter sea-level rise in Greenland in the coming years, provided greenhouse gas emissions remain consistently high. Researchers agree on this.
Increase confidence in models
For Antarctica, however, the computer simulations were less unanimous. The predictions ranged from minus 7.8 centimeters to plus 30 centimeters with constant CO2 emissions.
In the specialized journal “The Cryosphere”, the researchers note that the model’s calculations have become more uniform in recent years. That is why its results can also be trusted. At the same time, however, the researchers noted that all previous forecasts had significantly underestimated ice losses in some cases.
That was true for both Greenland and Antarctica. In fact, the declines between 2015 and today have been significantly higher than forecast. (hac)
