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Has a good laugh: Viola Amherd should win the combat aircraft vote. Image: keystone
Defeat of SVP and fighter plane yes: 5 findings from the latest polls
Five federal votes will go to the polls in ten days. According to the latest survey, the race ended in three cases. The starting point for tax deductions for children and the hunting law remains open.
On September 27 there will be a direct democratic “Super Sunday”: the electorate at the federal level has to vote four official documents and a popular initiative, in addition to numerous elections and cantonal and communal votes. On Wednesday SRG and the Tamedia publishing house published the results of the latest surveys on the five templates. These are the most important findings:
Amherd takes off with new fighter jets
CVP Defense Minister Viola Amherd should expect to vote on Sunday in a relaxed manner: according to both polls, there is a clear majority in favor of acquiring $ 6 billion of new fighter jets for the Air Force.
According to the survey carried out by the research institute Gfs Bern for SRG, 56 percent of the participants want to vote for the new fighter jets, or rather vote. According to the poll conducted for Tamedia by political scientists Lucas Leemann and Fabio Wasserfallen, there is even 65 percent approval for the acquisition of combat aircraft.
Opinions are very advanced, only four (SRG) or three percent (Tamedia) of those who are willing to participate have no opinion. According to both surveys, assuming that the acquisition transaction is therefore the most realistic option.
They reach different results when it comes to approval in French-speaking Switzerland and among women: according to the SRG survey, only 45 percent of French-speaking countries are in favor of the new combat aircraft and 50 percent are against: the trend in French-speaking Switzerland is towards a majority without a majority, individual French-speaking cantons could reject the submission.
In Tamedia, on the other hand, 62 percent of the French-speaking Swiss surveyed want to agree with the proposal and only 37 percent reject it. According to the SRG poll, 50 percent of women are in favor of new fighter jets. In the Tamedia poll, 58 percent of women are in favor, a significant advantage compared to the last poll at the end of August.
The SVP threatens a clear defeat
The SVP can hardly mobilize beyond its own supporters with its limitation initiative. In SRG’s poll, 63 percent of those surveyed said they rejected the initiative, while only 35 percent want to agree. According to the Tamedia survey, 64 percent say no and only 33 percent of those surveyed say yes.
According to the authors of the SRG poll, the initiative only found a majority among SVP supporters and among “government suspects.” You write from a “stable majority against.” While the rejection in German and French-speaking Switzerland is clear in both polls, the yes and no fields in Italian-speaking Switzerland are balanced.
The final mobilization decides on the hunting law …
The starting point for votes on the new hunting law and the increase in deductions for children remains open. In the first case, followers in the SRG survey reached 46 percent, in the Tamedia survey 49 percent.
Polls indicate a contradictory trend movement: According to the SRG poll, supporters have lost eight percent of their approval, the authors write about a “no-trend stalemate.” In the Tamedia survey, however, the group was able to increase by six percent. The deciding factor should be which field can mobilize the strongest by voting on Sunday.
… and children’s prints
The race to increase child deductions from direct federal taxes is also wide open. According to the SRG poll, 43 percent are in favor, 52 percent against. In the Tamedia poll, 51 percent agreed with the proposal and 46 percent rejected it.
According to the SRG survey, opinion formation has not yet been completed. Five percent of those who are willing to participate still do not know how they will vote and just under half are decided for or against. According to the authors of the SRG poll, voting intentions could still change.
However, they write about a “clear non-trend” in all language regions. Argumentatively, the opponents of the bill had won the game. It is an “exceptional case of opinion formation on a presentation to the authorities.” Although the authors of the study do not want to commit to any scenario, the trend found speaks in favor of a continuation of the “polarization to no” and, therefore, the rejection of the proposal.
Paternity leave is the goal
Clearer approval must be given on voting Sunday for a two-week paternity leave. The field of yes is far ahead with 61 percent (SRG) and 70 percent (Tamedia). The bill is likely to be accepted in all language regions, with the highest approval being in French-speaking Switzerland.
While the majority of SVP voters reject paternity leave, they find a majority in supporters of all other parties. Even with the FDP, whose assembly of delegates had spoken in favor of a no slogan. According to the SRG poll, the greatest support comes from the 18-39 age group, where 81 percent favor the presentation. Among those 65 and older, 49 percent of those surveyed want to agree. The Tamedia survey shows a similar picture, but with a consistently higher yes percentage.
(aargauerzeitung.ch)
