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For eight years he pulled strings in the background as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet secretary. Now, the ruling LDP party has elected Yoshihide Suga as party chairman; he will automatically also be head of government.
Yoshihide Suga, until now cabinet secretary, becomes the new prime minister of Japan.
The beginning of a new political era is perfect in Japan. On Monday, Japan’s cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga won the election for president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) against two rivals. Suga received 377 of the total 535 votes.
Even at the base of the party, he got the most votes, although he was hardly popular before. On Wednesday, the House of Commons will elect Suga to succeed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who will resign for health reasons after nearly eight years in office.
An outsider comes to power
With Suga, Abe’s economic policy, known as Abenomics, is now showing its true colors. Biographer Kenya Matsuda calls Suga, 71, “rulers in the shadows.”
Exactly this role as whip and backbiter of Japan’s longest-serving head of government was the deciding factor in the power struggle within the party for a politician who is actually a politician outsider. Suga becomes the first prime minister since the PLD was founded in 1955 not to belong to a wing of the party. These wings are the real power base of various politicians and constantly fight for influence and positions.
Five of the current seven wings of power quickly positioned themselves behind Suga. Because other candidates are missing in the party who symbolize the hope of continuity in the crisis. In the pandemic, Suga is better prepared than his rivals, said Finance Minister Taro Aso, who leads one of the most powerful wings of the party, in favor of Suga.
Suga himself promised “Abenomics with improvements”. Suga stands for “egoless Abenomics,” explains Japan expert Jesper Koll, who advises investment house Wisdomtree. The stock market reacted positively. Even intimate connoisseurs of Japanese power mechanics don’t expect a drastic change. “Suga will continue what the Abe government has done for the past eight years,” says Haruo Shimada, an economist who previously chaired many government committees and advised Abe.
Fear of unstable times
But the big question is whether Suga can use it to ease worries about the sudden power shift. Observers are already warning that, as in the past, after strong governments, unstable times are looming again.
For example, after Abe’s mentor Junichiro Koizumi’s six-year tenure, the world’s third-largest economy exhausted six prime ministers in six years. Abe was one of those flies from the political years in his first term. Suga is also facing huge challenges that could quickly bring him down.
He not only has to lead the country through the worst economic crisis in postwar history, but also find a new balance between America’s ally and China’s sales market. This is made more difficult by the fact that Japan increasingly views China as a military threat.
Furthermore, Abe’s aide could still be drawn into the various scandals over the Prime Minister’s friendship services, which have already dropped Abe’s popularity. And he is also responsible for a style of government that critics call oppressive. To gain more support in the party, Suga could soon call new elections and try to obtain a personal mandate.
A man of iron discipline
Like millions of postwar Japanese youth, Suga, the son of poor strawberry farmers, migrated from remote Akita prefecture to Tokyo to start a new life. He financed his night school with factory jobs, then studied law and became a politician.
The 71-year-old is still tough on himself today: He starts the day with a 40-minute walk and ends it with 100 sit-ups. In politics he is also seen as methodical, data and detail oriented, and open to advice.
Suga has good starting conditions. Following Abe’s resignation, the country was hit by a wave of nostalgia. The latest low approval rate for Abe’s cabinet shot after his resignation in polls to more than 70 percent.
Within the party, you can count on Abe’s support. Additionally, the Abe-Suga duo have greatly strengthened the power of the head of government by building a well-staffed cabinet office.
The ministries used to appoint advisers to the prime minister. Today the boss chooses his team and also the heads of the ministries. Suga now promises to use that power to push for structural reforms.
Suga seems to want to strengthen the fight against debt and the excessive concentration of power and wealth in Tokyo. Otherwise, Suga was lazy in the party’s internal election campaign. Because he didn’t have to convince anyone. He was sure of victory even before the vote.
