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“There is a great risk of a failure to reach an agreement”: Johnson’s ultimatum surprises the EU
With Brexit, the signs point to a storm again. Almost four months before Britain leaves the EU internal market, opportunities for the specific trade pact appear to be disappearing.
Just in time for the next round of negotiations on Tuesday, the British government issued two declarations of war, causing the EU side in Brussels to be extremely excited. MEPs spoke of “blackmail”, “shock” and “insanity”.
For one thing, Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued a kind of ultimatum on Monday: Either we agree to October 15 or both parties must go their own way, declared the head of government. He combined this with the almost euphoric assessment that future relationships without a contract would be ‘a good outcome for the UK’.
On the other hand, the government leaked the plans for a single market law to the public through the Financial Times, which would partially nullify the already sealed and valid exit agreement of both parties. These are the most delicate parts of the deal: avoiding a hard border between British Northern Ireland and the EU state, Ireland.
Johnson says nothing new and yet provokes
As a reminder: Britain left the EU on January 31. However, all EU rules will continue to apply in the UK for a transition period until 31 December. Only then does the economic breakdown come.
To avoid tariffs and high costs, both parties have been negotiating a trade pact for months. There are no tangible results, but increasingly acute mutual exhortations to finally move forward.
That, as Johnson has now emphasized, a deal should go into effect in October is nothing new. The EU also emphasizes this, otherwise there would not be enough time for ratification. Johnson’s apparent equanimity towards failure is provocative to the EU.
Then you would trade like with Australia, said the Prime Minister. Britain would have full freedom in laws, regulations, fishing and contracts with third countries, he was pleased. “And we will do very well as a result.”
The EU sees it completely differently and warns of the far-reaching economic consequences for both parties in the event of a “no deal”. An EU diplomat sadly commented on Johnson’s remarks that if the British government wanted to throw itself off the brink, the EU couldn’t help it.
If London does not advance early in the negotiations, it is actually on the way to a “no deal, with all the negative consequences.”
There is no new deal if there is a breach of contract
The EU’s reaction to the “FT” report was almost even more violent. The president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, officially asked Britain to abide by the exit agreement. That is an obligation under international law and a prerequisite for the future association, he wrote on Twitter.
A spokesman for the EU Commission left no doubt what that meant: If London does not stick to the contract that has already been signed, there would be little point in negotiating another.
The British government appeased that they only wanted to avoid “undesirable consequences” of the Northern Ireland rules and clarify some “specific elements” with a British law. This indirectly confirmed the “FT” report.
So how are things really going? Are they more than threatening gestures and negotiation tactics? “The current situation is explosive,” says Brexit expert Fabian Zuleeg of the German Press Agency’s Brussels Center for European Policy. “I see the risk that there is not such a great deal.”
Johnson’s assessment that this wouldn’t be a big leg break is dismissed by the expert: “Then you’d be back at the point where nothing works the first day. That would be a high cost factor for the EU, but especially for Britain. “
Will Brexit pay off economically?
Ulrich Hoppe, director of the German-British Chamber of Commerce and Industry, sees it the same way. The most important consequence of a “no-deal” would be that customs duties would have to be imposed in accordance with the rules of the World Trade Organization. For example, cars that are made in Britain but sold on the continent would be more expensive.
“For many companies, it may no longer be economical to produce in the UK to the same extent,” said Hoppe. Carmaker BMW, which produces the Mini at its Oxford plant, expects major cuts at the event.
Grocery discount stores like Aldi and Lidl, which are rapidly expanding in the UK with more than 65 million consumers, fear that supply chains will be disrupted. “A lot of things have to be delivered quickly because the goods are perishable or the storage costs are so high,” Hoppe said.
Border controls would hamper this just-in-time delivery and companies would have to rent larger warehouses. “These are additional costs.”
If the cat cannot clear customs
The EU Commission also expects “disruptions” if there is no trade deal by January 1. It would create uncertainty for citizens, companies, students and researchers, writes the Brussels authority in a July report.
In the same article, however, he explains up to the last 40 pages that even with a deal there will be drastic changes. Customs procedures and controls in the movement of goods, end of the free movement of workers and students. British train drivers can no longer drive in the EU, British university degrees are no longer automatically valid, recognition of driving licenses as well as pet identification cards for traveling with dogs or cats must be reorganized. And so.
In other words: Rest is coming. How difficult it will be should be shown in mid-October. (sda / dpa)
