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Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe resigns for health reasons during the biggest postwar economic crisis. The constitutional reform that he favored was unsuccessful.
Shinzo Abe resigns, leaving Japan without a leader at a difficult time.
Shinzo Abe recently surpassed his great-uncle Eisaku Sato as head of government with the longest term in office, which fills him with pride. Abe, 65, has led the country since late 2012, has repeatedly had electoral successes with his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and, especially at the beginning, has created a spirit of optimism. Visibly exhausted and restless, the outgoing prime minister also admitted at a press conference on Friday that he had failed in his nearly eight-year term, which was characterized by continuity despite everything.
The opportunity to initiate such a long-term constitutional reform has been missed. So far, the constitution dictated by victorious Americans at the end of the Pacific War has not been changed one iota. The PLD currently has a large majority in the upper and lower houses, but without a broad consensus among the Japanese people, the controversial paragraph 9, which stipulates the renouncement of war forever, cannot be eradicated. The opportunity to explore the pros and cons of a constitutional review with discussion forums that extend well beyond parliament has been missed.
To reach an agreement with South Korea
While the security axis with the United States continues, relations with South Korea have deteriorated during the Abe administration. A new rapprochement is very important for the entire region, including China and Russia, to put North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un in his place. Seoul and Tokyo have to jump over their shadows.
Abe has had tangible successes in international trade policy. A free trade agreement with the European Union and adherence to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) despite the departure of the United States gave impetus. Due to its insular location and the advanced aging of its population, Japan is even more dependent on free trade and direct market access from emerging countries. Abe recognized him from the start. Perhaps Washington will later get excited again about the TPP project, which was endorsed by former President Barack Obama.
Public finances out of control
The balance of the economic policy program, which was launched immodestly in 2012 as “Abenomics”, is mixed. In essence, it was an extraordinarily expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, as well as promises of structural reform. The beginning was tailor-made, because in anticipation of ultra-low interest rates, the stock market began to skyrocket in 2012 even before the change of government. During Abe’s reign, the Nikkei 225 Index has advanced 130 percent, also reflecting an emerging entrepreneurial spirit.
Some years followed with modest growth rates, which, in view of the decline in the workforce, was not natural. With state finances in dire straits, Abe pushed through the unpopular but necessary VAT increase in two steps from 5 to 10 percent. Other reforms, for example in agricultural and labor market policy, remained partial.
Amid the Corona crisis, Abe is now giving up the wheel, creating a lot of uncertainty. It is an untimely departure. Fighting the epidemic requires strong measures and good coordination between the central administration of Tokyo and the governors of the prefectures. Wing fights between the PLD greats who, after many years, see their opportunity, are the last thing Japan needs now. Hopefully, Finance Minister Taro Aso, as Deputy Prime Minister, will ensure calm and discipline during the transition period.
