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American expert Arthur Honegger answered questions from SRF users about the US elections live on Facebook. The interesting aspects.
American Electoral System: Wouldn’t the Adjustments Make Sense? How the system can be adapted is always discussed. Voters often cause irritation in Europe. But they have a history and were introduced when the United States was founded. At the time, the Americans wanted a federal corrective and not a pure popular election. Otherwise, the populated regions would dominate and could determine the direction of the country on their own. That is why they decided on a system of voters. That also makes sense.
As a reminder: in Switzerland, an initiative is also required to have a majority of the people and cantons, even if the majority of the population is in favor of something, if the majority of the cantons or cantons do not do this, it is not will achieve. It is a similar mechanism. In the United States, however, there are reform efforts, an example being the “National Popular Vote” project, which can be used to represent a popular majority through detours with voters.
Is it possible for the electorate to vote differently and Trump to be elected? The electorate is not legally bound everywhere. However, they are chosen based on party affiliation. For example, Democrats are sent from Pennsylvania, where Biden won. It would be very surprising if they voted for Trump now.
The chances of this happening are very small. In 2016 there was a voter, originally from the United States, who cast his vote differently in protest. These “cheating voters” can be prosecuted depending on the state. Ultimately, Biden has 306 votes. To drop from 270, 37 voters would have to vote against his popular mandate. That is almost impossible.
Presidential Immunity: Does Trump Have To Go To Jail If He Is No Longer In Office? The President of the USA has some form of legal protection against prosecution. However, it is not absolute. During the Mueller investigation, it was discussed whether it was possible to impeach an incumbent president. That is why there is no absolute immunity. Trump does not have to go to jail, first you have to prove something to him.
But there are still a number of pending issues, be it the issue of abuse of power, obstruction of justice in connection with the Mueller investigation or the various allegations of sexual harassment. And something that will be very interesting is the early tax fraud allegations that are being made at the New York State level.
Transfer: Does Trump have to be there? In principle, it does not have to be there. In theory, you can also play golf or do something else if you want. However, many assume that this is not the case. But this is an important tradition that shows abroad that a peaceful handover is taking place. It would be good for the country and hopefully it will find that size. Then he would acknowledge the result and the new President Biden. And that is important for a democracy.
What if Trump refuses to leave the White House? Then it would be a squatter, so to speak. It would be illegitimate in the White House. Trump will avoid that. You sure don’t want to be removed from the Secret Service. But it will be a difficult handover, with little or no cooperation. A definitive defiant reaction is unlikely to occur. This would only damage his legacy and possibly future ambitions.
Has Trump fought fewer wars than his predecessors? He tried to withdraw like in Syria. However, a president must always respond to what is happening in the world. It forced a withdrawal from Syria and relied on targeted air strikes. In that sense, he has fought fewer wars than previous presidents.
Obama had already decided to withdraw from Iraq, however, and everything was in motion. Then a new threat with ISIS emerged and he had to react. Nothing like that has happened in the last four years. Trump, for example, ordered the attempted assassination of Iranian General Soleimani, which was highly controversial, also in the United States. He also fought a trade war with China.
United States and Switzerland: Can Biden Cooperate Well With Switzerland? Biden has a lot of experience in foreign policy and knows how to act. He has also been to the World Economic Forum (WEF) twice and his wife participated in a vocational training conference in Winterthur a few years ago.
There are certainly good opportunities to cooperate. For Switzerland, however, it is not so important who is in the White House, but what is on the agenda. During the Obama years there was the fiscal dispute and the tone was more serious. There were virtually no bilateral problems during Trump’s term. Let’s see what happens in the next few years. Switzerland is generally one of the easiest partners for the United States.
