- The head of Sweden’s lockdown-free coronavirus response claimed that as many as 30% of the country’s population could be immune to COVID-19 in an interview with The Observer.
- Anders Tegnell suggested the figure despite all available studies reporting much lower levels of antibodies in the Swedish population – for example about 10% of Stockholm, which is the region least affected.
- It is also not yet clear to what extent having antibodies protects a person against catching COVID-19.
- Visit the Business Insider website for more stories.
The architect of Sweden’s lockdown-free coronavirus strategy claimed that almost a third of the country’s population could now be immune to COVID-19 – a theory that is not supported by hard evidence.
Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Agency, told The Observer that immunity levels in some parts of the country could have risen above 30%.
He said that the recent drop in the cases of Sweden could mean that there is an immunity level in the population of Sweden of “20%, 30%, maybe in some areas even more.”
Tegnell is widely recognized as the architect of Sweden’s unusual response to the coronavirus pandemic, in which the country decided not to impose a widespread lockdown, and put relatively few restrictions in place.
His claim about immunity came when he last month tried to explain the drop in the cases of Sweden.
People are sitting in the park of Tantolunden in Stockholm on 30 May 2020, during the coronavirus pandemic.
HENRIK MONTGOMERY / TT News Agency / AFP via Getty Images
Tegnell said seasonal factors, such as schools and offices closing for Sweden’s summer holidays, were not enough to explain the drop in cases on their own.
“Exactly why this happened at the time and why it was so rapid and sudden is difficult for us to understand,” he said.
“But we believe the growing number of immune systems in the population has something to do with it.”
Despite Tegnell’s theory, researchers have so far reached some solid conclusions about immunity to COVID-19, and how it might work.
People who caught the virus usually have antibodies, which can be measured by tests. But it is not clear if having antibodies provides total – or even partial – immunity to COVID-19, and how long the effect may last.
Studies measuring antibodies in Sweden have not shown levels as high as the 20% or 30% cited by Tegnell.
In June, data from their Public Health Agency showed antibodies in about 10% of people in Stockholm, which was the region least affected.
Tegnell said the reason studies did not support his dissertation is because it is difficult to get a good sample.
He told the Observer: “It is very difficult to get a good sample from the population, because apparently the level of immunity varies enormously between different age groups between different parts of Stockholm and so on, and that is the reason that if we have one group measures get 4% to 5%, and if we measure another group, they are up to 25%. “
Tegnell had said in April that he expected 40% of the people in Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, to be immune by the end of May.
A study in late May suggested that 6.1% of Sweden’s population had developed coronavirus antibodies.
Some virologists in Sweden reject the theory that cases fall due to immunity.
More than 5,700 people have now died from the coronavirus in Sweden – a figure much higher than in neighboring countries, which have similar political systems and social habits.
Per capita, his deaths are more than five times higher than those of Denmark, more than 11 times higher than those of Norway, and almost 10 times higher than those of Finland.
Professor Jan Albert, an expert on infectious diseases at the Sweden Karolinska Institutet, warned Business Insider last week that Sweden could see further spikes in virus cases, or even a second wave of cases, especially as summer holidays end.
We have definitely come from a height, but whether we will see an increase again later in the year, especially when jobs and schools reopen, we do not know. “
“It’s likely we’ll see at least smaller eruptions and possibly some sort of second wave like peak.”
