A doctor says that people are getting “less exposure” to the virus.
As cases of the new coronavirus continue to rise in many states across the country, the new data provides some encouraging details. A recent study suggests that for people admitted to intensive care units for severe infection with COVID-19, the death rate has decreased by about a third since the start of the pandemic.
Shortly after the first few patients with the virus were identified in December, the number of positive cases increased exponentially, but now, so has our understanding of strategies to mitigate viral spread and therapies to treat patients.
“As we learn more about this virus and its effect on critically ill patients, we improve treatment and its complications,” said Dr. Eric Cioe Pena, director of global health for Northwell Health.
The study, conducted by researchers in the UK and published in the journal Anesthesia, offers a message of hope to front-line workers who are actively caring for critically ill patients. The authors systematically reviewed and performed a meta-analysis on all studies looking at ICU deaths in adult patients worldwide admitted with COVID-19. The mortality rate of these patients in May was approximately 40%, compared to almost 60% in late March.
In the past seven months, scientists around the world have coordinated efforts to try to find a way to cure the disease. Our knowledge of how the virus spreads, adheres to its host, and causes infection has increased tremendously, and so has our understanding of the management of serious complications that often result in ICU admissions.
“I think we are doing much better now,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, principal investigator for the board-certified Johns Hopkins University Health Safety Center on Critical Care and Infectious Diseases. “We have a better understanding of the pathophysiology of the disease, we have better tools to improve patient care, and we are more informed about ventilator management in these patients.”
Recently, studies examining severely ill coronavirus patients have demonstrated the potential importance of using steroids and antiviral agents in patients admitted to the ICU. But in addition to better treatment, other factors may have played a role in improving survival.
“We are diagnosing people earlier,” said Dr. Adalja. Technological advances in testing and increased awareness to evaluate anyone symptomatic of coronavirus have led to earlier diagnosis and faster treatment.
And, although tools to assess the virus, recommended practices to prevent viral spread, and strategies to limit large gatherings have differed across countries, the study found that there was no significant difference in ICU mortality rates in all the continents.
“The lump sum of knowledge that is applied to this problem is what has helped reduce mortality,” said Dr. Peña.
Still, Dr. Peña cautions that successful treatment must “be combined with good public health measures.” Otherwise, “we will erase any gains made in the past few months simply by overwhelming the ICUs that have improved in the treatment of COVID-19,” he said.
Dr. Adalja echoes this sentiment, noting that the study “should not be understood to mean that the virus is less deadly, just that we are getting better.”
And, this warning should not be taken lightly. Reports of fan shortages in major cities in the US were largely the result of a higher percentage of the population infected with the virus, leading to higher hospitalization rates. Continuing social distancing, hand washing, and wearing masks are vital to lessen the spread.
“People are receiving lower doses of viral inoculants” and “less exposure” in large part due to the strategies implemented to limit the spread, said Dr. Adalja. If fewer people become seriously ill with the virus from such measures, then ICU mortality rates may further decrease as new treatments continue to emerge.
“The things that were escaping at the beginning” of the pandemic are no longer overlooked, Dr. Adalja said. “We should expect this trend to continue.”
Shantum Misra, MD, is a senior internal medicine resident at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center and a contributor to the ABC News Medical Unit.
.
