(CNN) – If people washed their hands regularly, wore masks, and kept their social distance from each other, these three simple behaviors could stop most of the Covid-19 pandemic, even without a vaccine or additional treatments, according to a new study.
The study, published Tuesday in the journal PLoS Medicine, created a new model to look at the spread of the disease and prevention efforts that could help stop it.
Contact rates in the study were based on the interaction of people in the Netherlands, but the model is appropriate for other western countries, researchers at the Utrecht University Medical Center said.
“A major epidemic can be prevented if the effectiveness of these measures exceeds 50%,” they wrote.
However, if the audience is slow, but eventually changes behavior, it can reduce the number of cases, but not delay a peak in cases, depending on the model.
If governments close early, but no one takes additional personal protection measures, this would delay but not reduce a peak in cases. A three-month intervention would delay the peak by up to seven months, according to the study.
If government-imposed physical distancing were combined with disease awareness and personal steps, the height of the peak could be reduced, even after government-imposed social distance orders were lifted.
“Furthermore, the effect of combinations of self-imposed measures is additive,” the researchers wrote. “In practical terms, it means that SARS-CoV-2 will not cause a major outbreak in a country where 90% of the population adopts 25% effective handwashing and social distancing.”
Even with self-imposed social distancing, contacts with others may not be completely eliminated. For example, people who live together will interact, increasing the likelihood of someone getting sick. Therefore, small outbreaks are still likely.
The authors argue that governments should educate the public about how the virus spreads and raise awareness of the crucial roles of distancing themselves, washing their hands, and also masking use to control an ongoing epidemic. It does not differentiate between ordering some of these behaviors or encouraging them.
There are limits to the model. It does not account for demographics, nor does it explain the imperfect isolation of people who are sick with Covid-19, which means they can infect others who care for them in a healthcare or home setting. It also does not take into account the possibility of reinfection.
American public health leaders have been echoing the sentiment of this study recently. The director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told the Buck Institute for Research on Aging last Tuesday that the country “is not helpless.”
“If we all wore face covers for the next four, six, eight, twelve weeks across the country, this transmission of the virus would stop,” said Dr. Robert Redfield.
Admiral Brett Giroir, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, said Thursday in a briefing by the US Department of Health and Human Services that masks and physical distancing could quickly stop the spread of the pandemic.
“If we have that degree of compliance with these simple measures, our models say that’s really as good as shutting it down,” said Giroir. “These simple facts can really stop the outbreak without completely closing off your local area.”
The-CNN-Wire
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