Research by scientists at the University of Southampton has estimated that the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) will reach a record level as the warmest period of the Pliocene epoch some 3.3 million years ago in 2025 if emissions will not be controlled. The study was published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports on July 11 and revealed that carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere was approaching levels not observed in 15 million years by the hominoid.
Over the span of approximately five years, atmospheric CO2 is expected to cross the threshold of 427 parts per million, at times when Earth’s temperature was 3C to 4C warmer and sea levels were 20 meters higher, the scientists stated in the research. . Furthermore, the researchers stated that by 2025 the atmosphere would undergo changes similar to those believed to have separated human ancestors from orangutans and become recognizable hominoids.
Today’s ice sheets haven’t had a chance to catch up with CO2 forcing. We are traversing the Pliocene and heading into a Miocene-like future, said another author, Gavin Foster, professor of isotope geochemistry at the University of Southampton. Now we have to go back in time to find situations that are relevant, he added.
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Future of how Earth might respond
Co-author of the article Thomas Chalk said: “A surprising result we have found is that the warmest part of the Pliocene had between 380 and 420 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere.” He added: “This is similar to the current value of around 415 parts per million, showing that we are already at levels that in the past were associated with temperature and sea level significantly higher than today.”
The researchers cited the importance of the study, saying the findings illustrated the future of how Earth could respond to greenhouse gas loads from the past two centuries of industrial emissions. The international collaboration coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization and led by the UK Meteorological Office revealed a rise in temperature in the yearly updated five-year weather forecast, the study cited.
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(All image credit: University of Southampton launch)
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