- A study comparing exposure to coronavirus in London and Stockholm raises more doubts about herd immunity.
- It found that the two capitals had the same infection period – 17% – earlier in the summer.
- This is despite the United Kingdom and Sweden taking very different approaches to the coronavirus pandemic.
- Unlike the United Kingdom and most other countries, Sweden opted for strictly restricted measures.
- This decision was made in part in the belief that immunity to herds was attainable.
- The state epidemiologist of Sweden predicted that 40% of Stockholm would have anti-antibodies by May.
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Stockholm and London both had the same coronavirus infection rates earlier this summer, according to a new study, which left even more doubt about the theory of herd immunity.
Unlike most European countries, Sweden did not implement strictly targeted measures in response to the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus. Instead, it left shops, bars and restaurants largely open and students to attend school.
The United Kingdom, like most other countries, set up a nationwide lockdown, with the Boris Johnson government reducing offices, schools, and the hairdressing salon, and restricting social contact between individuals.
Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, widely recognized as the architect of the country’s controversial response to the pandemic, justified Sweden’s response by saying that countries that introduced strict lockdowns were likely to do so later in the year. this year large second waves would suffer, while Sweden’s would be smaller.
In April, he predicted that by May, 40% of people in the Swedish capital Stockholm would have developed coronavirus antibodies.
However, a study conducted by academics from University College London and published in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, estimates that the level of infection in Stockholm was actually around 17% in April – the same level as in London, according to analysis of tests performed in the capital of England in April and May.
The study poses a further challenge to herd immunity – the theory that a population will become immune to the coronavirus if at least 60% of people catch it.
Sweden voted against strictly restricted measures in part in the belief that this level of infection could be achieved in the foreseeable future.
Dr Simon Clarke, a professor of Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading, told The Daily Mail: “Natural herd immunity, generated by letting COVID-19 sweep through a population, may have been appealing to some because of the lack of unlocking or restricting the freedoms of people, but it was nothing more than an idea that had no supporting data.
“The Swedish experience of trying to achieve this, compared to other responses from the Nordic countries, resulted in much higher numbers of infections and deaths per capita, in addition to a longer outbreak,” he continued.
“These findings should prove to be a salutary warning, that appealing concepts and theories require supporting data when people’s lives are up to date and should not be used to match previous narratives.”
5,770 people in Sweden have died after testing positive for coronavirus on Wednesday morning, making it one of the highest death rates in Europe.
The figure is much higher than in neighboring countries with similar political systems and social customs. The death toll per capita is more than five times Denmark, more than 11 times Norway, and almost 10 times Finland.
The United Kingdom ‘hit almost the same path’ as Sweden
Anders Tegnell.
ANDERS WIKLUND / TT News Agency / AFP via Getty Images
There is currently insufficient evidence that coronavirus antibodies provide immunity to the virus. People who catch a virus normally develop antibodies, which can be measured by tests.
However, it is not clear if having antibodies provides total – or even partial – immunity to COVID-19, or how long such an effect may last.
A study published last month by Kings College London found that although 60% of people with the coronavirus had “potent” antibodies, just 17% three months later had the same level of potency. The potency of the antibodies decreased in the three months by 23 times and in some cases antibodies were undetectable at the end of that period.
The findings put “another nail in the coffin of the dangerous concept of herd immunity,” said Jonathan Heeney, a professor of virology at the University of Cambridge.
The UK government of Prime Minister Johnson has initially refused to try to pursue a strategy of herd immunity before it was warned that it would lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.
An Italian health minister in June said Johnson revealed his plan to pursue herd immunity in a phone call with Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte on March 13, just over a week before the UK entered a nationwide lockdown.
On the same day, Patrick Vallance, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser, said he believed the UK could achieve herd immunity.
The scientists behind the study, David Goldsmith of UCL and Eric Orlowski, said: “That this strategy is just like the traditional risky Swedish exception, we in the UK would do well to remember that we followed almost the same path.
“Currently, despite ‘strict (but tardy) lockdown’ in the UK, and the more moderate Swedish response, both countries have high seven-day average Sars-CoV-2 death rates compared to other Scandinavian and European countries. “
