SpaceX has been plagued by multiple consecutive delays in the launch of Falcon 9 and the Starship test over a period of a few days, ending the company’s second attempt in a potentially record-breaking month.
Originally slated to launch before (NET) June 22 or so, SpaceX’s own Starlink-9 satellite mission initiated the disgrace and suffered the most. After SpaceX announced an indefinite delay on July 11 to allow “more time to pay,” Starlink-9 is not expected to launch for several more days at best. On July 13, SpaceX announced that another summer mission targeting a NET launch on July 14 had also been indefinitely delayed to allow teams to inspect the upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket and potentially replace hardware.
Those two delays have had follow-up effects on planned subsequent releases in late July and early August, but the actual final results will be difficult to determine until SpaceX has decided on alternative release dates for Starlink-9 and ANASIS II. Meanwhile, during all delays in launching the orbital class, the first test of the Raptor engine with SpaceX’s fifth large-scale spacecraft has been consistently delayed and is now expected to be not before this week (approximately 15 to July 19). The delay band has been so pronounced and strangely simultaneous that CEO Elon Musk even stepped in on Twitter yesterday, shedding a little light on the situation.
On July 13, in response to a Spaceflight Now article detailing some of those setbacks, Musk revealed that SpaceX is “being more paranoid,” presumably the cause of most of the recent delays. Per Musk, “maximizing [the] Probability [a] successful launch is paramount ”for SpaceX: not exactly a shocking revelation, but still good to hear. Over the past six weeks, SpaceX has attempted to substantially increase its launch cadence, targeting four unprecedented launches in June 2020.
However, the delays woke up, starting with Starlink-9 around the last week of the month. SpaceX simply carried out its four-month launch ambitions in July, though that goal has already moved out of reach before the month’s first launch. As of July 1, SpaceX has completed 11 launches in 2020 and has at least 16 more within its tentative launch targets in the second half of the year. To complete all 16, the company would have to average almost three launches per month for the rest of 2020, a cadence it can only hold for about two months at a time.
Before ANASIS II’s indefinite delay was announced, Falcon 9’s B1058 booster was on track to beat the world record for the fastest lap of an orbital-class rocket, outpacing the NASA Space Shuttle by ~ 20% ( 9 days). Ironically, some concerns around the unmanned upper stage have caused such a delay, while the record booster B1058 was apparently ready for launch. Like Starlink-9, the ANASIS II delay is indefinite, which means it could last only a few days or extend weeks in the future. However, if SpaceX manages to turn around for a second launch attempt before July 26, B1058 still has a chance to become the world’s most reusable orbital-class rocket.
Meanwhile, Starship SN5 has been slowly advancing from lag to lag as the SpaceX team in South Texas prepares the rocket for its first live propellant wet suit (WDR) trials and its first ignition tests of the Raptor engine (i.e. static fire). Just a few days after that test is complete, SpaceX wants to launch the massive steel rocket in the first large-scale jump test, which can reach 150m (500ft) or more before attempting to land nearby.
Before numerous delays, the first static Starship SN5 fire was expected to occur in late June or early July. As of now, SpaceX appears to be targeting the first live methane and oxygen propellant wet suit (WDR) trial (a precursor to any flight test) no earlier than (NET) July 15 to test the “fuel pump “from SN5. If successful, SpaceX would presumably go into static fire operations in a few days, followed a few days later by the first jump test attempt if static fire was also successful.
Check out the Teslarati newsletters for quick updates, insights on the ground and unique insights into SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.
