South Korea, a country held up as a model for its response to Covid-19, is on the verge of a new national outbreak, according to officials.
The latest outbreak of coronavirus cases centered around a right-wing Presbyterian church has spread for the first time to all 17 provinces across the country.
Every day brings a new three-digit virus in total.
Social distance rules have been enacted. Masks are now mandatory in Seoul. The government is also considering whether to close schools and businesses.
Experts of infectious diseases in the country have called on the government to step up social distance measures even further, warning that “hospital beds fill up quickly and the medical system’s limits are close”.
The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) has admitted that about 20% of all new cases are of unknown origin – despite the country’s efficient contact detection system that can detect around 1,000 potentially infected patients in an hour.
South Korea’s fight against Covid-19 began in February after an outbreak at a Christian cult called the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in the city of Daegu, about 200 km (124 miles) south of Seoul. Within weeks, the outbreak was under control.
But things are different this time.
Distrust and conspiracy theories
The majority of the new cases are all close to the highly populated capital that has more than 10 million people at home.
And one of the biggest concerns is that many of the far-right worshipers who are potentially infected believe that the virus was planted as part of a conspiracy to shut it down.
Many refuse to be contacted, let alone tested.
And there is another important risk factor. Infected members of the Shincheonji Church were mostly young – in their 20s. But the current outbreak is affecting a much older age group.
Members of the Sarang Jeil Church, which roughly translates as “Love Comes First”, are right-wing conservatives and claim that President Moon Jae-in is a communist and a puppet of China and North Korea.
Before the outbreak of coronavirus, they would gather in their hundreds in downtown Seoul every Saturday in their hundreds and march past the Blue House to name the South Korean leader.
One of the church’s pastors, Lee Hae-suk, told my colleagues at Reuters last week – after testing positive for the virus – that this was a plot to kill “Sarang Jeil Church by increasing the number of confirmed cases” “.
When asked who she thinks is behind the “plot”, she said “Moon Jae-in”.
Controversial pastor Jun Kwang-hoon posted a statement on YouTube claiming he had “five different tip-offs that there was a virus terror cut by the Sarang Jeil Church”.
Other members claimed it was spread by contaminated bottles by hand processor. At a press conference last week, a church spokeswoman claimed that pro-North Korean sympathizers infiltrated the church and deliberately spread the virus.
The collusion theories make it difficult for South Korean contacts. In total, more than 875 members have tested positive so far, but health officials believe hundreds more could be infected and potentially spread Covid-19 to others.
Church members participated in tens of thousands of others at an enormous rally on August 15 in downtown Seoul along with most over 50 years old.
About 200 people have now tested positive for the virus after the rally.
The government said it had asked the church for a full list of members who attended, but they did not receive it.
It allowed police to request a search Friday night. They eventually rushed across the church headquarters to find a complete list of member names to try to contact them.
The church denies these allegations.
“Sarang Jeil Church and Pastor Jun Kwang-hoon have complied with the current government’s preventive measures,” said attorney Kang Yeon-jae. “We closed the church as soon as there was a confirmed case. We told all church members not to come to church and test for the virus.”
But domestic media showed images of what they claim are church members screaming and swearing at contacts.
Meanwhile, the virus continues to spread, including among seven police officers who were on the August 15 rally to keep order.
Churches across the country were called to hold services online on Sunday, but the Seoul city government said 17 did not comply.
President Moon has called for fines for those who deliberately obstruct anti-virus measures, including those who conduct “all-out misinformation campaigns”.
The highlight is yet to come
New virus cases with unknown routes of infection continue to emerge and health officials support the warnings and preparations for an outbreak in the country.
KCDC director Jeong Eun-kyeong has said the peak of this outbreak is yet to come.
Today, she pleads with people to take social distancing measures to keep infection rates as low as possible.
“Please stay home and wear a mask when you go out. Please join us again in this social distancing campaign so we can continue educating our students, support our local economy, and prevent the medical system from collapsing. And that we keep our patients away from danger. “
Dr Ju Young-Su at the National Medical Center in Seoul told us that his goal was to keep the death toll as low as possible. Its job is to share critical beds to patients. He is preparing for the worst case scenario – that the rally could have infected more than 2,000 people.
“The Korean medical teams will do our best to keep them all alive,” he told us.
A total of 309 people died in South Korea as a result of coronavirus. One of the lowest death toll in the world.
This country is well prepared. It has a famous test, track and track system.
For months, health officials have managed to put out small clusters and prevent the virus from spreading.
But this latest outbreak shows just how difficult coronavirus can be to contain. The case numbers are still much lower than anywhere else in the world, but the fear and alarm in Seoul is higher than it has ever been.
This could be South Korea’s biggest Covid-19 test right now.