The sun has begun to rise again.
The International Panel of Scientists announced on Tuesday that the Sun has emerged from the quiet part of its 11-year sunspot cycle and has now entered the 25th numbered cycle. (The number of sunspot cycles spreads back to 1755.)
The researchers predicted that the next cycle would be a pretty quiet one.
Solar scientists examine the flow of fat and the number of sunspots, which show the level of velocity in the sun’s magnetic fields. Sunspots can emit radiation explosions called solar flares as well as massive explosions of particles known as coronal mass ejection. If a massive coronal mass ejection affects the Earth, it could advance modern culture, knock out satellites and bring widespread blackouts into the continent.
Such a solar explosion in 1859, known as the Carrington event, disrupted telegraph systems. Today, the world is more electrically connected to each other, and giant transformers that are part of the power grid are considered to be particularly vulnerable.
As economists wait months to announce the beginning or end of a recession, scientists delay such pronunciations for the solar cycle, as they average the number of sunspots over 13 months to avoid being fooled by short-term fluctuations in solar activity. Nine months ago, in December, the Sunspot cycle reached its quiet state.
“It’s been growing slowly but steadily ever since,” said Lisa Opton, a solar scientist at the Space Systems Research Corporation and co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 prediction panel, which is sponsored by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Over the past half-century, the solar cycle has become progressively weaker, leading some scientists to speculate that the sun may be part of an extended calm period. The last solar maximum, with an average sunspot number of 114, was the weakest since 1928 and the fourth weakest.
The forecast panel expects that activity during this solar cycle will be with a peak of 115 in the sunspot number, with an average of 10%, give or take 10. It will be the same as the last cycle. The maximum is forecast to take place in July 2025.
The other co-chair of the panel was Douglas A. of the Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Cologne. “If this proves to be true, it will make the cycle equal to about 25 solar cycles,” Bisecker said. A very active cycle reaches a sunspot number of more than 200, he said.
Predictions made by individual scientists still vary widely, with some predicting more quiet cycles and others predicting a return to higher levels. But Dr. Upton and Dr. Bisecker said the panel reached a consensus quite easily, relying on models using magnetic field measurements in the Sun’s polar regions to figure out what would happen in the coming years.
“We have done very well in modeling the evolution of polar magnetic fields,” Dr. U. Opton said. “This is an excellent indicator for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle and was one of the main characteristics observed by the forecasting panel.”
She said there are other indicators that the cycle will remain calm, including a large number of spotless days during the solar minimum. But, if the Sunspot cycle moves faster than expected in the coming months, it would be a sign that perhaps experts have underestimated the intensity of the next cycle, he said.
Even during a weak solar cycle, the sun can emit huge explosions. In 2012, an explosion hitting the King Rington event erupted from the surface of the sun – but fortunately its purpose was not on Earth.
Still, a quiet sun raises the barriers that our planet will not be struck by a solar disaster in the next 11 years.
