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WASHINGTON (BLOOMBERG) – The world officially recorded 1 million deaths from Covid-19 in one of the pandemic’s most sobering milestones, but the true count could be nearly double.
Actual deaths from the worst outbreak in a century may be closer to 1.8 million, a number that could grow to 3 million by the end of the year, according to Dr. Alan Lopez, award-winning professor and director of the University of Melbourne. global burden of disease group.
The rapid spread of the coronavirus and its ability to transmit in people who show no signs of the disease have allowed it to overcome measures to accurately quantify cases through widespread diagnostic tests.
“One million deaths has meaning in itself, but the question is whether it is true,” Professor López said in an interview before the figure was reached. “It’s fair to say that the million deaths, surprising as it may sound, is probably an underestimate, a significant underestimate.”
Even in countries with sophisticated health systems, mortality is difficult to measure accurately. Tens of thousands of likely Covid-19 deaths in the US were not captured by official statistics between March and May, a study found in July, thwarting efforts to track and mitigate the progression of the pandemic.
The scarcity of accurate data undermines the ability of governments to implement timely strategies and policies to protect public health and promote economic recovery.
If mortality from Covid-19 reaches 3 million as predicted by Professor López, it would place the disease among the worst deaths in the world. An undercount of deaths could also give some people a false sense of security and could allow governments to downplay the virus and overlook the burden of the pandemic.
WITHOUT SYSTEM
India has confirmed more than 6 million cases of Covid-19, but it accounts for only about 95,000 of the 1 million reported deaths worldwide, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The country, which has the highest number of infections after the US, lacks a reliable national vital statistics registry system to track deaths in real time.
Meanwhile, in Indiana in the United States, researchers found that although nursing home residents were not routinely screened for the virus, they accounted for 55% of Covid-19 deaths in the state.
“Yes, cases are reported daily everywhere, but as soon as you get to the next level, like how many were admitted to hospitals, there have been huge gaps in the data,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Metrics. and Health Assessment at the University of Washington in Seattle.
Medical data, including the duration of the illness and symptoms, help attribute a probable cause of death, he said.
Patients with heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and other chronic conditions are at increased risk of dying from Covid-19. Some governments, including Russia, are attributing the cause of deaths in some of these patients to the pre-existing condition, raising questions about the veracity of official mortality data.
WHO GUIDELINES
In July, Russia recorded 5,922 deaths due to Covid-19. At least 4,157 other deaths were related to the coronavirus, but were not included in the count due to how the nation defines such deaths. Overall, it recorded 29,925 more deaths in July than in the same month in 2019.
The WHO released guidance for classifying coronavirus deaths in June, advising countries to count deaths if patients had symptoms of the disease regardless of whether it was a confirmed case and unless there was a clear alternative cause.
A death from Covid-19 should be counted as such even if pre-existing conditions exacerbated the disease, the organization said. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released similar guidelines.
Still, health workers certifying deaths may take time to adopt the methodology, said Professor Lopez of the University of Melbourne. His research has received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, created by Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News’ parent company, Bloomberg LP.
“Doctors often learn as they go, so they do not certify all deaths that are due to Covid as Covid deaths,” said Professor López.
JAPAN DROP
Although the pandemic has altered mortality patterns around the world, not all the changes are a direct result of the pandemic, he said. Physical distancing measures may have reduced road deaths and deaths from influenza. In Japan, which has been scrutinized for its lack of widespread testing and relatively lax containment efforts, deaths fell 3.5 percent in May from a year earlier, even as Covid-19 cases peaked.
“The pandemic actually works in contradictory ways to affect mortality,” said Professor López.
Likewise, the economic cost of the pandemic, which can exceed 35.3 trillion dollars (48.42 trillion Singapore dollars) by 2025, will be driven more by changes in people’s spending patterns than by the number of deaths and “lockdown” measures imposed by the government, according to Professor Warwick. McKibbin, an economics expert at the Australian National University and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
“We estimate that this outbreak will cost the world economy tens of trillions of dollars,” Professor McKibbin said in an interview. “The change in economic performance is caused by individuals changing their behavior, not because the government ordered a shutdown.”
Worldwide, growth in the number of daily deaths has moderated since it rebounded in March and April, thanks to improved medical care and ways of treating the disease. But as they resurface in Europe and North America ahead of winter and flu season, deaths from Covid-19 may increase dramatically again.
It took nine days for cases in the UK to double to 3,050 by mid-September, compared to the previous doubling time of five weeks, BMJ magazine said last week.
Covid-19 patients ages 75 to 84 are 220 times more likely to die from the disease than those ages 18 to 29, according to the CDC. People over the age of 85 have a 630 times greater risk of dying. The advanced age of fatal Covid-19 cases has made some people think that “they are older people, they are going to die anyway,” said Dr. Michael Osterholm, epidemiologist and director of the Center for Disease Research and Policy. Infectious at the University of Minnesota.
“I have a hard time with that,” Dr. Osterholm said in an interview. “That is an unfortunate and very sad way to come to understand this pandemic. Many of the people who died are very important loved ones to many of us that it is difficult to dismiss it, since it is only a number.”
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