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The news that US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump have tested positive for Covid-19 has made what was already a surreal contest even more unpredictable.
Constitutionalist politicians, experts and lawyers struggle to find an answer to the question: What happens if a presidential candidate is incapacitated, or worse, dies, before the elections?
The short answer is that a tough election could get even more chaotic.
This is because, while the contest is officially supposed to take place on November 3, voting is already underway, and replacing a candidate with time running out could be a legal and logistical nightmare.
There have been concerns for both Trump, 74, and his presidential rival Joe Biden, 77, because of their age.
Less than 48 hours before his diagnosis, the president shared the stage with Biden in the first presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio, although they did not shake hands.
Trump is supposed to be in very good health, but his party must prepare for the eventuality that it has to introduce another candidate.
Dr. Richard H. Pildes, a professor of constitutional law at New York University, was asked about this very scenario in August.
He said the ball would be in the hands of the candidate’s political party.
Vice President Mike Pence, who would become president in the event of Trump’s death, would be one of the best options for the Republican Party, but not the safe choice.
The Republican National Committee has 168 members: three from each state plus three from six territories. A vote must be taken. The parties would have to replace the name of their deceased candidate with that of the new candidate.
“Depending on when this happens, it may not be easy,” said Dr. Pildes.
“Different states have different deadlines for when parties must certify their candidates for the ballot.”
Furthermore, if states do not have laws allowing the candidate’s name to be changed, any change can be challenged in court, although the courts are unlikely to reject the new nomination if the party process has been followed.
But the dispute could delay the process.
Moreover, University of California Irvine law and political science professor Rick Hasen writes, “The problem here is that the ballots have already been cast and millions of people have already voted. At this point, it seems impossible for them to candidates submit a new name to replace a name on the ballot without beginning the entire election process, which is not possible in the 30 days or more before Election Day. Congress could pass a bill that delays the election , but I can hardly believe do it. “
The other question, if President Trump is replaced by another candidate, what happens to the votes that have already been cast in his favor?
In the case of some states and Americans abroad, where early voting is already conducted by mail, it is up to the individual states to review their laws and decide whether, if the candidate dies in the interim, the ballots would automatically count toward the vote. new candidate for his party, or be canceled. The verdict on that may have to be decided in court.
This is because the US elections are actually 50 elections plus one (in the District of Columbia), and each state has its own rules and regulations.
One thing is almost certain: with the president and the first lady in quarantine, the second presidential debate scheduled for October 15 will be canceled.
Foreign policy decisions that have been largely the province of the White House during the Trump administration may also be put on hold.
And if the president succumbs to the virus, regardless of the process for a surrogate candidate, there is a risk of real confusion in a deeply divided country with an economy and a people reeling under a colossal coronavirus death toll of more than 200,000.
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