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At the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, when countries were faced with the rapid spread of Covid-19, China sent boxes upon boxes of masks and other protective equipment abroad.
These items arrived in various countries with stickers of the Chinese flag, in a display of what has been called “mask diplomacy.”
With the world in the grip of a raging pandemic, it was a golden opportunity for China to reconfigure the narrative of how it had mishandled the initial stages of the outbreak and position itself as a world leader in a time of great need.
But as it has since turned out, the public relations campaign was a failure. Reports of unscrupulous private Chinese firms selling substandard masks, test kits and fans clouded efforts to win goodwill. Overzealous Chinese diplomats who asked for praise and gratitude from recipient countries also raised questions about Beijing’s altruism.
But now, as testing of China’s Covid-19 vaccines nears completion, Beijing has been given a second chance to repair its international image and position itself as part of the global solution to the pandemic.
On paper, Beijing appears to be in a good position to expand its soft power and influence. With infections within its borders under control, China has more freedom to distribute its vaccines abroad, unlike the United States, which has prioritized vaccinating Americans first.
In May, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that Chinese vaccines would be a “global public good,” and China subsequently joined the World Health Organization (WHO) -informed Covax initiative, of which the United States is conspicuously absent, to help ensure equitable global distribution of COVID-19 Vaccines.
Professor Steve Tsang of the SOAS China Institute in London said that “there is no question that Beijing is trying to use the vaccine supply to boost its soft power.”
“But a lot will depend on how it’s done,” he said, noting that vaccines made in China were unlikely to be supplied free of charge after clinical trials have been completed.
To be sure, Beijing has learned from its earlier mistakes, but this latest push for “vaccine diplomacy” is not as straightforward as it sounds.
Gentle power thrust
Of the 18 vaccines currently in phase three clinical trials, five are from China. These are being developed by four vaccine manufacturers who are conducting trials in some 16 countries.
Chinese vaccine manufacturers have had to go abroad for end-stage testing, as they require the vaccines to be field tested in an environment where the virus is still spreading. In return, these countries have had preferential access to Chinese vaccines.
State media reported this month that foreign countries have so far ordered about 500 million doses of Chinese vaccines, largely from host countries where these drugs are being tested.
Developed countries have taken over Western-made vaccines, leaving a void in the developing world that experts say China aims to fill.
Rich nations bought nearly all of next year’s supply of the two pioneering vaccines, one from Pfizer-BioNTech and the other from Moderna, according to the People’s Vaccine Alliance (PVA), a network of organizations that includes Amnesty International, Oxfam and Global. . Justice now.
Canada, for example, has ordered enough vaccines to inoculate every Canadian five times, although it has pledged to share any excess with other countries.
The situation is such that nine out of 10 people in 67 developing countries, including nations such as Cambodia, Laos and Pakistan, have little chance of being vaccinated next year, the PVA said this month.
For these countries, China’s vaccines are a lifesaver.
This month, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain became the first two countries to grant full approval to a vaccine made by the state-owned company Sinopharm, even before the full results of clinical trials have been released.
While Beijing has rejected claims that it is using its vaccines as a tool for global influence, saying that it is committed to sharing its vaccines with the world, it is not difficult.
to see how their stance on their vaccines aligns with their foreign policy goals.
Dr. Huang Yanzhong, senior global health researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City, said Beijing’s actions present this picture of a “benign great power providing access to countries excluded from the global distribution of these. vaccines “.
But they also expand the market share of Chinese vaccines in the developing world, as Western alternatives have largely dominated the developed market.
“When you look at the countries for which they want to prioritize access to vaccines, they are all in the developing world, almost all of them are covered by the (Belt and Road Initiative), and some of those countries are considered strategically important to Beijing, like Pakistan and Indonesia, “said Dr. Huang.
Top Chinese leaders have promised priority access to countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and African nations.
Indonesia received 1.2 million doses of Sinovac vaccines this month. Another 1.8 million doses are expected to arrive next month.
Lack of transparency
The paucity of data on China’s vaccine candidates is disturbing.
Both Pfizer and Moderna have announced that their vaccines appear to be 95 percent effective, while the vaccine produced by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca is up to 90 percent effective. But none of the Chinese vaccine candidates have released official preliminary data from the phase three trials.
The United Arab Emirates, which approved the Sinopharm vaccine, said trials in the country showed the drug to be 86 percent effective. Meanwhile, Brazil said a clinical trial of the Sinovac Biotech vaccine in the country yielded more than 50 percent effectiveness, the minimum standard set by US regulators for the emergency authorization of Covid-19 vaccines.
The Chinese health authorities have pointed to the fact that more than a million Chinese have been inoculated with the experimental vaccines under emergency use protocols without adverse reactions, as proof of their safety.
However, without transparent data on vaccines, Beijing will find it difficult to inspire confidence in what it has to offer.
Last week, Hong Kong said that its residents will be able to choose which vaccine they want to take among several candidate vaccines that will likely include Sinovac’s.
It also doesn’t help that past vaccine scandals in China have undermined global confidence, including one as recent as 2018 where a leading vaccine manufacturer was found to have manufactured rabies vaccines from expired products. “Vaccines made in China do not have a well-established reputation in the developed world, and given their national track record, this is an important factor as to why countries remain skeptical of vaccines from China,” said Dr. Huang.
Simply put, for China’s soft power push to work, its vaccines must be shown to be effective and stand up to scientific scrutiny.
Unlike masks and test kits, vaccines are injected into the human body and cannot be discarded if found to be defective.
There is no free lunch
At the same time, there are concerns that China’s vaccine push could give it too much influence in the region, said Lye Liang Fook, principal investigator at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. Relying on Chinese vaccines could cause countries to tone down their criticism of China when it comes to territorial disputes.
Mr Lye noted that Asean nations like Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia have been conscious of not relying solely on vaccines made in China. These countries are also signing agreements with other firms such as Pfizer, AstraZeneca and the Gamaleya Institute of Russia.
Malaysia and the Philippines have competing claims with China in the South China Sea, while Indonesia and China are in a dispute over fishing rights around the Indonesian Natuna Islands.
In particular, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen recently said that the country would accept vaccines approved only by the WHO and that his country was not a “garbage can” for Chinese test vaccines.
Mr Lye said: “It tells you that even the countries that are most receptive to China are, at least publicly, showing that they are being politically aware.”
The concern is that Beijing could use the vaccine supply as a lever to achieve its geopolitical goals in the region, or cut off the supply in case of disagreements.
Political tensions between China and Canada are believed to be the reason Chinese authorities prevented Tianjin-based company CanSino Biologics from shipping its test vaccines to Canada for testing a few months ago.
Immunity gap
Some experts like Dr. Huang believe that the mass vaccination programs launched in
Western countries like
This month, the United States and Britain have put additional pressure on Beijing to prioritize its national population.
There is also the probability of
a developing “immunity gap”, where Western nations achieve herd immunity to the virus earlier than China, meaning these countries could return to normal, while Beijing
it would have to maintain its strict control measures at considerable financial cost.
“It is not only epidemiologically bad for China, but also politically dangerous, because China
I could no longer point to the ineffectiveness of Western countries in handling the outbreak to show the superiority of their political system, “said Dr. Huang.
Health authorities have said that China could produce around 610 million doses of vaccines this year and another 1 billion next, but about 500 million doses of vaccines have been earmarked for overseas shipping.
Assuming that two doses are needed for each vaccine and that vaccine production capacity does not increase, that amount would not be enough for the 70% of the 1.4 billion people in China that Beijing needs to inoculate to achieve herd immunity next year.
There are signs that Beijing recognizes the risk of this happening, Dr. Huang said, pointing to recent reports that China intends to vaccinate about 50 million people by the Chinese New Year next year.
But if you want to achieve herd immunity before Western countries, it could mean breaking promises made to the developing world.
“If it does not deliver the amount of vaccines it promises, that will tarnish Beijing’s image. This is a dilemma that I think Chinese leaders will have to face in the near future,” said Dr. Huang.
The incoming Biden administration could also thwart China’s reach if the administration takes a more active stance in vaccine diplomacy and reserves a portion of its vaccines for developing countries.
Add a rapidly mutating virus to the combination of all these concerns and the only certainty is that Beijing’s vaccine diplomacy will not be as simple as an injection in the arm.
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