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By Kate Kelland
More than half a million people in the United States could die from COVID-19 by the end of February, but about 130,000 of those lives could be saved if everyone wore masks, according to estimates from a modeling study on Friday.
Estimates by researchers from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation showed that, with few effective treatment options for COVID-19 and still no vaccines available, the United States faces “an ongoing public health challenge from COVID -19 during winter “.
“We are heading for a substantial fall / winter increase,” said IHME Director Chris Murray, who co-led the research.
He said the projections, as well as the currently rising infection and death rates, showed that there is no basis for “the idea that the pandemic is going away,” adding: “We don’t think that’s true.”
President Donald Trump said in Thursday’s election debate on the pandemic: “It’s going to go away.”
Friday’s update was the first time the IHME has projected deaths beyond February 1. His current forecast on his website is 386,000 deaths as of February 1.
Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 221,000 Americans so far, has become the main issue for him and Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the Nov.3 election. Polls have shown that Americans trust Biden more than Trump to handle the crisis.
The IHME study predicted that large and populous states like California, Texas and Florida are likely to face particularly high levels of illness, death and demands on hospital resources.
“We expect the increase to increase steadily across states and nationally, and to continue to increase as we head toward high levels of daily deaths in late December and into January,” Murray said.
The modeling study, which mapped out various scenarios and their projected impact on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States, found that universal mask use could have a major impact on death rates, potentially saving 130,000 lives.
The current use of face masks in the United States varies widely. While some states, like New York, have strict rules about when to wear masks, others have no requirements. The issue has turned political, with some supporters drawing inspiration from Trump, who is often seen without a mask and has repeatedly questioned his usefulness.
“Expanding mask use is one of the easy benefits for America … and it can save many lives,” Murray said.
He added that just as parts of Europe and some local high-streaming areas of the US are now doing, many US states would need to reintroduce social distancing measures to curb the sudden increase in winter.
