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A second wave of coronavirus could be “more severe” than the first and may spread more quickly if it arrives in winter, the England medical director warned.
All countries seeking to ease the blockade measures must now negotiate an “extremely difficult balancing act” to keep the pandemic under control, Professor Chris Whitty said at an online conference at Gresham College.
In particular, the virus’ s “R” number should be kept below one, which means that each infected person could expect to pass it on to less than another person on average.
Professor Whitty said: “We have to make sure that R does not come back above one. Because otherwise we will go back to a second wave.”
(Image: 10 Downing Street / AFP via Getty)
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“It is entirely plausible that a second wave is more severe than the first if it is not mitigated.
“All countries have an extremely difficult balancing act, and we must all be honest about the fact that there are no easy solutions here.
“Covid-19 is far from complete and eradication is technically impossible for this disease.”
Outline several key unknowns about Coronavirus, Professor Whitty highlighted seasonality, saying: “There may be a seasonal element to this, we don’t know, it is too early with this virus.”
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He continued: “It is not only in Game Of Thrones that winter always comes, it is also true in all health services.
“It may be that there is a seasonal element, and if so, for most respiratory viruses, they are more likely to be transmitted, there is a greater chance of transmission in the winter.”
“Winter is always worse than summer, spring, and fall for health services, and we have to think about this in terms of how we come out for the next phase.”
However, he added that social distancing measures are likely to reduce rates of the flu and other respiratory illnesses when winter comes.
Other key unknowns about Covid-19 highlighted by Professor Whitty were:
- The proportion of the population that is infected without symptoms, although it is currently believed to be “really quite low”.
- How long the immunity to the virus lasts.
- Whether blood tests correlate with immunity.
- How much children contribute to spreading the virus.
- Why people deteriorate after a week and why men are significantly more likely to die than women.
Speaking at the daily coronavirus briefing Boris Johnson said the “R” number will be the crucial factor in deciding how far to ease the block.
This number is the number of people that each Covid-19 carrier infects around them.
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It has different rates in different cities or work settings, but the government is focusing on the national rate.
At the beginning of the pandemic it was said to be between 2 and 3.
Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance revealed that the national R number is now between 0.6 and 0.9, while in London it is 0.5 to 0.7.
Both estimates would be enough to stop the horrible exponential growth of the virus.
But Professor Vallance and Professor Whitty cautioned that the R number must be kept below 1 to avoid overwhelming the NHS.
If the R is currently 0.9, that would leave very little room to change the lock, as each relaxation will push it up again.
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