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At first glance, Liverpool’s recent games with Leeds United and Chelsea couldn’t have been much more different.
The Reds needed a penalty in the 88th minute to finish off a seven-goal thriller against Marcelo Bielsa’s team on the first day of the season, but they dominated at Stamford Bridge and, aside from Jorginho’s penalty, they rarely seemed to conceal a goal.
But scratching the surface and taking a look at the underlying numbers reveals that the overall balance of the two games was much more similar than you would automatically assume from the scores.
In both games, Jurgen Klopp’s team had at least 18 shots while his opponents had no more than six. Liverpool also had three clear Opta-defined chances each time, while the only one in the debit column was Chelsea’s penalty, so none were allowed in open play.
These similarities were reflected in the expected goals (xG) statistics, especially if we ignore the two shots Liverpool had against Leeds and the one they conceded at Chelsea.
Different models produce different results, of course, but Michael Caley beat Leeds as a 1.5 vs 0.6 Liverpool’s victory was expected without Mohamed Salah’s pair of penalties, with Chelsea’s match very similar 1.6 to 0.2 once the home team point kick is removed. That is a deserved victory in both cases, even if the actual result differed significantly.
And the greatest similarity of all occurred in the shooting at targets. In both games, Liverpool tested both Illan Meslier and Kepa Arrizabalaga with six attempts on goal, while their teams offered three apiece in exchange for Alisson Becker facing.
The Reds have played 458 league games since the start of the 2008/09 season, and a 6-3 shot on target is now the most frequent result, having occurred 19 times. And looking at other matches with a 6-3 tally, it’s clear that the touchdown line at Chelsea was the far more likely outcome than the madness of the Leeds match.
In the previous seven seasons, there have been 121 examples of a Premier League game that ended with one team making six shots on goal and allowing three. The team with the advantage won 72 of the games, 60 percent of the total, while drawing 34 and losing only 15.
Liverpool were responsible for nine of the games in that sample, winning seven and drawing two, with their 2-1 victories at Southampton and the Wolves contributing to their title-winning campaign.
But whichever team won, none of those 121 Premier League games ended 4-3. The closest was Southampton’s 4-2 win over Norwich City in March 2014, but understandably, a 2-0 win happened more often – 11 times, in fact.
It is logical, if you think about it. How often is a team likely to score three goals from three shots on target, as Leeds United did at Anfield?
Based on the past seven years of football in England’s top flight, roughly five percent of the time. There have been 467 examples of an away team making three attempts on goal, and all have found the back of the net 23 times.
Strange outcomes are always possible in a relatively low scoring sport. In 2009, Liverpool had 14 shots on goal against Arsenal and allowed only four in return, but the match ended in a 4-4 draw.
However, from general trends, it is very safe to say that Leeds scoring three times was unlikely and that Liverpool’s victory was deserved, just as it was at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. If the Reds can continue to produce underlying performances of this force, they will be well prepared to defend their Premier League crown, whether the winning scoring lines are 4-3, 2-0, or whatever combination you want to name.
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