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BANGKOK: Tensions are rising around the protests in Thailand, with police shooting six people last week and using tear gas and water cannons on the streets of Bangkok.
The Thai capital is preparing for the next big rally on Wednesday (Nov 25), and protesters plan to demonstrate at the Crown Property Bureau, the agency that manages property for the Thai monarchy.
We take a look at the forces at play and what could happen next in a country with a long history of political unrest.
DEMONSTRATORS GET HARD
After four months of demonstrations, sometimes involving tens of thousands of protesters, the mood is growing harsher and protest leaders are warning that they are unwilling to give in.
Slogans and insults against the monarchy, recently unthinkable, are proliferating, while riot police showed last week that they are ready to take firm action against the rallies.
Protesters take shelter from police water cannons in Bangkok. (Photo: AFP / Jack Taylor)
The student-led movement has gained a solid footing on the streets and on social media and experts say the “Red Shirts,” a once-vociferous group that led major street protests a decade ago, can join the ranks.
The movement is calling for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha, who came to power in a coup in 2014, to resign, for constitutional changes and for the reform of the monarchy.
Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political science professor at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, told AFP that the movement must prioritize its demands and focus its leadership on a few prominent figures if it wants to advance.
But with their demands for monarchy reform that smash taboo, Siripan said, the protesters have already “allowed a new political culture to emerge, pushing for freedom of expression unprecedented in the kingdom’s history.”
AUTHORITIES ‘PLAYING BY HEAR’
Authorities have had a cautious response to the movement since it emerged in July, announcing emergency measures and then withdrawing them, arresting the protest leaders and then releasing them again.
“From the beginning of the movement, the government has listened to it,” said Paul Chambers of Naresuan University.
Protesters raise the three-finger salute at a pro-democracy protest in Bangkok. (Photo: AFP / Jack Taylor)
Unlike previous Thai protest movements, most of the protesters are urban, middle-class youth.
Authorities may be wary of tarnishing Thailand’s international image with a repeat of the Red Shirt crackdown in 2010 that left 90 dead in the heart of Bangkok’s tourist and commercial district.
However, authorities have hardened their tone in recent days, brandishing the threat of “section 112,” the kingdom’s famous and strict royal defamation laws, which carry up to 15 years in prison.
ROYAL CHARM OFFENSIVE
King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who had not been seen much in public prior to the protest movement, has launched a charm offensive, making numerous appearances, speaking to his followers, and declaring his “love” for all Thais.
But he remains a controversial figure and does not enjoy the same level of affection accumulated by his late father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, during his seven decades on the throne, which ended in 2016.
King Maha Vajiralongkorn has spoken to his followers and declared his “love” for all Thais. (Photo: AFP / Madaree Tohlala)
The current king has strengthened his powers by taking direct control of the royal fortune and army units.
And his frequent stays in Germany have also raised questions: Some criticize him for not being sufficiently concerned for his subjects during the coronavirus pandemic.
“There is obviously a campaign to gather legitimacy. The question is whether this should have been done much earlier, if there is still enough time,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute for Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
READ: Thai king calls for unity after protesters returned to caravan
A VIOLENT CLIMAX?
Thailand has often seen protest movements that end in bloodshed, twice in the 1970s, then in 1992 and in 2010, and experts warn that a repeat may be occurring.
Chambers said “ultra-realistic right-wing groups” are already forming to harass democracy protesters.
Some are talking of a possible coup, to add to the dozen Thailand has seen since its transition to democracy in 1932.
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In the short term, next week brings a possible milestone with an expected trial in a constitutional court case against Prayut for allegedly abusing the official residence of the army chief.
If he loses, it looks like he will be fired from office, a fact that would likely remove much of the immediate tension from the unrest on the streets.
