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Various results of GE2020, such as the loss of Sengkang GRC by the Popular Action Party (PAP) to the Workers Party (WP) and the general turn towards the opposition, could have been less surprising if more attention had been paid to social media signs. data.
That’s the opinion of Mr. Chua Chin Hon, chief data analyst at artificial intelligence solutions company Analytix Labs. He said that the main parties, PAP, WP, Progress Singapore Party and Singapore Democratic Party, treated social media primarily as distribution channels for your messages.
This “shoot and forget” approach to social media will prove increasingly costly in future general elections, he added. Speaking on an online forum hosted by the Institute for Political Studies yesterday, he said there were four “missed signals” before Election Day.
COVID-19 DESENSITIZATION
By Nomination Day on June 30, user interaction with Covid-19 posts on Facebook had plummeted from its peak in April.
“The instinct to ‘flee to safety,’ if it existed, probably faded along the way,” he said, referring to the belief that voters would be more inclined to support incumbents in a crisis.
INCIDENT OF IVAN LIM
Ivan Lim, 42, who had been walking the field at Jurong GRC, and was expected to be sent to the constituency by the PAP, withdrew his candidacy after allegations were made about his conduct at work and as a service commander. national.
News of his withdrawal broke on June 27, the same day the PAP manifesto was launched. On that day, Facebook posts about him from seven local media outlets had 62,730 user interactions, nearly nine times more than those from the manifesto launch.
“Some say that online users will always be drawn to drama and controversy,” Chua said.
“These are fair points. But when you have an interaction gap of this size, it should have sounded some red flags for the PAP …”
ENTHUSIASM GAP
User interaction with Facebook posts on the PAP’s key jobs message peaked long before Election Day, while the opposition message, denying the PAP a “blank check,” peaked. maximum just in time, Chua said.
The final encouragement came in the form of emotional video appeals from former and current WP bosses Low Thia Khiang and Pritam Singh to Singaporeans to “make your vote count.”
“In contrast, the PAP did not end its campaign on a particularly strong or memorable note,” he said. “It could have been even lower if it weren’t for the Prime Minister’s Fullerton Rally.”
SENGKANG SURPRISE
In a sample of 325 posts analyzed for the Sengkang contest, the WP team had around 32,700 daily Facebook interactions during the campaign, while the PAP team had around 4,200.
But, Chua noted, not everyone who reacted to the WP posts was necessarily Sengkang voters, or even Singaporeans, as there are no publicly available tools to analyze Facebook engagement data by geographic region.
“But when the gap is so big, there is no question that the WP team got a much bigger mindset,” he said.
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