[ad_1]
Mon, November 23, 2020 – 8:15 a.m. M.
SINGAPORE’s official economic outlook has been trimmed again, as the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) impression was revised up less than expected.
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MTI) on Monday cut its expected contraction to between 6% and 6.5% in 2020, from 5% to 7% earlier.
But GDP is projected to grow between 4% and 6% in 2021, as the world’s major economies recover from the economic disruption of the Covid-19 pandemic and rebound from this year’s low base.
The economy contracted 5.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, beating a previous estimate of a 7 percent drop on better-than-expected factory output in September. The latest print brings the contraction for the first nine months to 6.5 percent.
Citing improved growth prospects and possible reduction in pandemic-related restrictions, MTI said “Singapore’s economy is projected to grow again in 2021.”
But he added that the looming recovery should be gradual “and will largely depend on how the world economy performs and whether Singapore can continue to keep the internal Covid-19 situation under control.”
With Singapore in the second phase of its three-stage reopening, the economy contracted a more gradual 5.8 percent year-on-year in the July-September period, moderating from the 13.3 percent drop seen in the previous three months. .
This was slightly below the average 5.5 percent decline noted by private economists, who were applauded for double-digit industrial production growth in September, as services and construction fared worse than they were. the flash data indicated.
The manufacturing sector certainly did not disappoint. It expanded by 10 percent, above anticipated estimates of 2 percent growth and reversing a previous 0.8 percent decline.
Strong global demand for semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, as well as higher production in biomedical manufacturing, offset declines in transportation engineering and overall manufacturing output.
Still, service industries contracted 8.4 percent year-on-year, slightly worse than the preliminary figure of an 8 percent contraction, but a rebound from the 13.4 percent drop in the second quarter.
The decreases ranged from 4.3% in wholesale and retail trade to 29.6% in the transport and storage industry, even though finance and insurance grew 3.2% and information and communications services 2%.
The drop in construction was revised to 46.6 percent in the third quarter, down from 44.7 percent in flash data, after plummeting 60 percent in the second quarter.
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, Singapore’s GDP added 9.2% in the third quarter, after falling 13.2% in the second quarter.
“While growth is expected to rebound from this year’s low base, our economic recovery is expected to be gradual, and GDP is not likely to return to pre-Covid levels until the end of 2021,” the secretary said. Permanent Trade and Industry, Gabriel Lim. an information session.
He also noted the uncertainty about the global trajectory of the pandemic, as well as the launch of the vaccine, which he said will affect Singapore’s economy.
“At the national level, our economic recovery will also depend on whether we are able to keep the Covid-19 situation under control. MTI will continue to closely monitor developments,” Lim added.
[ad_2]
