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A man wearing a face mask walks past a mural in Singapore’s Chinatown on April 1, 2020.
Facebook Facebook logo Sign in to Facebook to connect with Roslan Rahman AFP | fake images
SINGAPORE – Singapore’s economy is expected to contract 7.6% in the third quarter compared to a year ago, while the coronavirus pandemic remains. the main economic threat, according to a central bank survey of economists and analysts.
That would be the third consecutive quarter of a year-on-year contraction for the Southeast Asian economy. But it will still be an improvement from the 13.2% decline in the second quarter compared to the previous year, which is the worst quarterly contraction on record in the country, data from the Singapore Department of Statistics showed.
The quarterly survey was sent last month to 28 economists and analysts who closely monitor the country’s economy. The Monetary Authority of Singapore received responses from 26 of them.
Here is the forecast of the respondents for the different sectors in the third quarter:
- Accommodation and food services would contract 30% in the July-September quarter compared to a year ago;
- Construction, one of the sectors most dependent on migrant workers, is expected to contract 25% year over year;
- Wholesale and retail trade, as well as manufacturing, are forecast to contract 6% and 0.6% year-on-year, respectively;
- Finance and insurance appear to be a bright spot, with economists expecting the sector to expand 4.7% in the third quarter from a year earlier.
For the full year, respondents expect Singapore’s gross domestic product to fall 6%, the MAS said. That is in line with the government’s forecast of a contraction of between 5% and 7%.
Recovery on the cards
Singapore was one of the first countries outside of China to be affected by the virus. As of Sunday, the country confirmed more than 57,000 accumulated infections, more than 90% of those involved in migrant workers living in crowded dormitories, data from the Health Ministry showed.
More than 56,000 of the total cases have recovered, while 27 died, the Health Ministry said.
The Singapore government imposed a partial lockdown, calling it a “circuit breaker,” to contain the spread of the virus in April.
Today, most of those measures have been lifted and almost all economic activities have resumed. The government has also allocated around 100 billion Singapore dollars ($ 73.26 billion) in stimulus to help businesses and households overcome the crisis induced by the pandemic.
Economists in the MAS survey expect Singapore’s economy to continue to recover. They predict that the economy could grow 5.5% next year, the results showed.
But about 90% of those surveyed cited a possible worsening of the coronavirus pandemic as the biggest risk weighing on the outlook for Singapore’s economy, according to the survey. Economists were also concerned about tensions between the United States and China and the slower-than-expected global economic recovery, the results showed.
On the other hand, containment of the coronavirus disease, or Covid-19, due “for example to the successful global deployment of a vaccine” was the most cited factor that would lead Singapore’s economy to perform better than expected, MAS said. .
