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WASHINGTON: Tuesday’s (November 3) US election is narrowed down to a handful of states on the battlefield that Joe Biden must change to take the White House from President Donald Trump.
All of the top changing states this year (Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin) went to Trump in 2016, including four that had voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2012.
In a sign of how critical they are, Trump traveled to three of them – Michigan, North Carolina and Florida – on Sunday alone, while Biden held two events in Philadelphia.
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The Democratic challenger leads by an average of 3.2 percentage points on the battlefields, according to polling aggregate RealClearPolitics (RCP).
If the remaining 44 states vote as they did four years ago, Biden could change just the two biggest battlefields, Florida and Pennsylvania, and win.
Here’s a look at the top swing states.
Supporters of President Donald Trump wave flags as they gather before the start of a motorcade at Tropical Park in Miami, Florida, on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2020 (Photo: AP / Rebecca Blackwell).
FLORIDA
The largest of the swaying states is the anchor of the Sun Belt, the band of southern and southwestern states in the US that is rapidly growing in population, featuring agriculture and military industry, and large numbers of retirees. .
Republicans are mounting a fierce defense here, and Democrats accuse them of actively suppressing the vote, particularly in minority communities.
The state’s huge Latino population will be key, and polls show they are less aligned with the Democratic list than in 2016.
Most experts say Florida is a Trump firewall; if violated, Trump is likely to lose the White House.
Electoral votes: 29
Average CPR: Biden leads by 1.4%
People hold up fans with images of US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris before a campaign event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on November 1, 2020 (Photo: Reuters / Kevin Lamarque ).
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden’s birth state is the largest at stake in the Rust Belt, a north-central region marked by industrial decline over the past decade.
Trump volunteers swarm the state, including the city’s suburbs, where they are campaigning door-to-door.
Pennsylvania has multiple socioeconomic regions, and Biden, whose campaign largely adheres to public health guidelines by organizing primarily online, has poured advertising resources into the state.
Large cities in the state will vote heavily for Biden, while rural western and conservative central Pennsylvania are committed to Trump.
The suburbs and the northeast of the state will be critical.
Electoral votes: 20
Average CPR: Biden leads by 4.3%
Supporters of President Donald Trump watch a video during a campaign event in Lansing, Michigan, Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2020 (Photo: AP / Nicole Hester, Mlive.com, Ann Arbor News).
MICHIGAN
Michigan leaned very narrowly in favor of Trump in 2016 and is being fiercely contested this year.
Trump has visited the Great Lakes state promoting the return of the United States, but his voters are concerned about the impact of the pandemic on the economy and the president’s response.
Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has clashed with the president and his forced shutdowns have angered conservatives.
Armed protesters held rallies outside the state capitol this summer, and members of a right-wing group were recently arrested for plotting to kidnap the governor.
Electoral votes: 16
Average CPR: Biden leads by 5.1%
Supporters listen as former Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at Riverside High School in Durham, North Carolina, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2020 (Photo: AP / Carolyn Kaster).
NORTH CAROLINA
This traditionally conservative state approached Trump by three percentage points four years ago, but both sides acknowledge that it is now too close to call.
The governor of North Carolina is a popular Democrat who has earned praise for his balanced response to the pandemic.
Republicans based their national convention here in August, though it was mostly online, with Trump visiting last Sunday.
Electoral votes: 15
Average CPR: Biden leads by 0.3%
US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at a carpenters union in Phoenix, Arizona, on October 8, 2020 (Photo: Reuters / Kevin Lamarque).
ARIZONA
Arizona has been a Republican stronghold for decades, but its constituency is changing, with a growing Latino community and an influx of more liberal Californians.
Conservative voters appreciate Trump’s efforts to restrict immigration and build a wall on the border with Mexico.
But Trump has hurt his prospects by repeatedly denigrating the late Senator John McCain, who represented Arizona for decades in Washington and still looms large in state politics.
Electoral votes: 11
Average CPR: Biden leads by 1.2%
US President Donald Trump points his finger during a campaign rally at Green Bay Austin Straubel International Airport in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on October 30, 2020 (Photo: Reuters / Carlos Barria).
WISCONSIN
Democrat Hillary Clinton chose not to campaign in America’s dairy land in 2016, and voters punished her for it.
This year, Democrats singled out Wisconsin, locating their national convention there in August, although the meeting was moved online over concerns about the coronavirus.
Trump and Biden have campaigned in the state, the president as recently as last Friday.
Vice President Mike Pence and Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris also visited, and First Lady Melania Trump hosted an event last Saturday.
Electoral votes: 10
Average CPR: Biden leads by 6.6%
