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SINGAPORE: Even as airline tickets between Singapore and Hong Kong are being bought after the details of the air travel bubble were announced, aviation analysts said such arrangements may not be the lifeline that airlines expect.
There may not be a “big increase” in demand for tickets, given that COVID-19 testing is required, one expert said.
On Wednesday (November 11), the Singapore Civil Aviation Authority announced that the air transport bubble between the two cities would begin on November 22, with a daily flight to each city with 200 passengers each way. This will increase to two daily flights to each city from December 7.
Travelers between the two cities will not have to be quarantined or provide a stay-at-home notice, but must test negative for COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) within 72 hours prior to the scheduled departure time.
Travelers must take special flights, but will have no restrictions on the purpose of their trip and will not have to follow a controlled itinerary.
The opportunity to travel for pleasure seems to have attracted some, and flights from Singapore to Hong Kong on November 22 have already been sold out.
READ: Singapore and Hong Kong air travel bubble to start on Nov 22 with 200 travelers per way per day
“This is likely to elicit more enthusiasm and interest from Singapore travelers than Hong Kong travelers, who are not typically among Singapore’s top visitors,” said Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultancy Endau Analytics.
“In the short term, there will be a slight increase in the number of travelers between Singapore and Hong Kong. We don’t expect a big increase in demand given that two or three tests are required before and after the trip, “said Herman Tse, an aviation analyst at civil aviation market intelligence firm Ascend by Cirium.
He said that taking the required COVID-19 tests was “a strong disincentive” for travelers.
OTHER POSSIBLE TRAVEL BUBBLES
The air travel bubble between Hong Kong and Singapore would serve as a benchmark for other countries and regions to follow, if successful, Tse added.
“Malaysia, China and Indonesia are possible for more air travel bubbles for Singapore as these countries have frequent trade activities with Singapore,” he said.
Shukor identified Taiwan, South Korea and Japan as possible destinations for future travel bubbles, but said there were “not many options” as popular destinations, especially those in Europe, were banned due to the high number of COVID-19. . cases.
Other possibilities, based on Singapore’s pre-pandemic travel trends, as well as the ability to contain COVID-19 and a willingness to open up to international tourism, include New Zealand and Australia, said Alton Aviation Consultancy Director Joshua Ng.
READ: Singapore-Hong Kong Air Travel Bubble – What You Need to Know
A MULTIDESTINATION AIR TRAVEL BUBBLE?
Singapore’s Transport Minister Ong Ye Kung said on Wednesday that if the Hong Kong-Singapore air travel bubble succeeds, he hopes to be able to “trilateralize” and “quadrlateralize” the deal to add more members and create a further travel bubble. significant.
Analysts said there would be obstacles to establishing a multi-destination travel bubble.
“Multi-country travel bubbles will be a huge challenge as there are many issues to consider and agree on,” said Mr. Tse, adding that countries and regions should “be careful” when agreeing on travel bubbles. by plane, as any new outbreak “would put the situation back to square one.”
“Until and unless there are mutually acceptable deals, international air travel will be fraught with bureaucratic challenges,” Shukor said.
In response to the announcement of the details of the air travel bubble, Singapore Airlines on Wednesday described the Hong Kong deal as an “important step” in the airline industry’s ongoing recovery.
But industry watchers said travel bubbles may not be the relief that airlines, which have been ill for months because of border restrictions aimed at stemming the spread of the coronavirus, are hoping for.
READ: Air tickets between Singapore and Hong Kong on November 22 sell out, economy class seats reach S $ 1,000
“Air travel bubbles can increase the demand for air travel to some extent, but the process involved is cumbersome, with multiple tests required even for a short trip, and this can act as a powerful disincentive to travel even within the bubble.” said Mr. Tse.
“Since there is no domestic traffic in Singapore, the recovery would be relatively slow compared to other countries like China and Japan.
“Travel bubbles are critical to the recovery of airlines, but it will take time to build traveler confidence.”
Shukor said air travel bubbles and other similar arrangements have been unable to “resurrect airlines around the world,” in part because governments have not taken a universal approach to border controls and measures to prevent the spread. of the coronavirus.
READ: Requirements for Singapore-Hong Kong air travel bubble should not be ‘totally symmetrical’: Ong Ye Kung
Earlier this week, US pharmaceutical giant Pfizer said early data showed that its COVID-19 vaccine is 90 percent effective.
The availability of a vaccine will be key to the recovery of the air travel industry in the medium and long term, Mr. Tse noted.
“Going forward, the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine will have a much greater impact on travel recovery than travel bubbles,” said Alton Aviation’s Mr. Ng.
“Given imminent vaccine approvals and possible availability in 2021, countries can take a conservative wait-and-see approach, rather than setting travel bubbles that can carry additional transmission risk.”
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