From ‘love’ to ‘thug’: Biden wins to change the dynamic between the US and North Korea

SEOUL: Headline-grabbing summits between North Korean leaders and the United States will be off the agenda for some time, analysts say, after US President-elect Joe Biden called Kim Jong Un a ” bully “, in contrast to the statements of Donald Trump. of love.

Trump’s bizarre diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang went from mutual insults and threats of war to “love letters” and the first meeting between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader.

The two fickle men met twice more after their historic summit in Singapore in 2018, but with no concrete progress on denuclearization efforts.

Comment: Trump created a different handbook with North Korea and this should continue

Now, Biden’s victory heralds a return to more standard diplomatic norms, analysts say, and his administration wants to see tangible steps toward denuclearization and progress in a series of work-level negotiations ahead of any made-for-television summit.

In the election campaign, Biden said he would not meet with Kim without preconditions and accused Trump of “emboldening” the North Korean leader.

In the final presidential debate last month, the Democrat denounced Trump for befriending Kim, comparing the North Korean leader to Adolf Hitler.

“He’s talked about his good friend, who is a bully,” Biden said of Kim. “It’s like saying we had a good relationship with Hitler before he invaded Europe.”

For its part, while Pyongyang’s state media has yet to mention the election or the outcome, they previously criticized Biden, calling him a “mad dog” who must be “beaten to death” by the Korean Central News Agency.

READ: South Korea’s Moon says the country will ensure there are no gaps in the US alliance

“Slightly annoying”

According to analysts, North Korea saw in Trump’s unorthodox approach its best chance of securing a deal that would allow it to retain at least some of its nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which are banned under Council resolutions. Security Council.

Pyongyang will be “slightly upset by the change in leadership,” said former CIA analyst Soo Kim.

“The regime is aware that the prospects for a high-level meeting with an American leader will now be slim,” he added.

“We expect a more systematic and principles-based approach for Pyongyang. This probably means less ad hoc interactions and some method of dealing with Kim.”

Throughout the process with Trump, Pyongyang has continued to develop and improve its arsenal, displaying a variety of new weapons, including a huge new ICBM, at a military parade last month that marked the 75th anniversary of its ruling party.

It has carried out dozens of missile launches since the collapse of the second Kim-Trump summit in Hanoi in February 2019, but North Korea has made sure not to cross the red lines of the president of the United States of an intercontinental ballistic missile or a nuclear test.

Pyongyang likely refrained from testing strategic weapons this year “out of consideration for Trump,” said Shin Beom-chul, a researcher at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.

“North Korea awaited the reelection of Trump,” he told AFP.

But Pyongyang has grown increasingly frustrated that the much-vaunted personal relationship between Kim and Trump hasn’t led to an easing of sanctions or other substantive concessions from Washington.

In July, Kim’s powerful younger sister said the United States appeared to be “hostile” toward the North “no matter how good relations are between top leaders.”

READ: Worried Asia wonders: What will Joe Biden do as president of the United States?

“ADVERSE REACTION”

Biden’s victory will have “greatly complicated Pyongyang’s calculations,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of international relations at Handong Global University.

North Korea despises Biden for his role in the Obama administration, which adopted a policy of “strategic patience,” refusing to compromise with Pyongyang unless it offered concessions first or until the regime collapsed from within.

North Korea carried out a nuclear test four months after Obama’s first term, but is likely to wait to assess the Biden administration’s approach before launching major provocations in a bid to take “the upper hand,” the former analyst said. CIA Kim.

“Kim Jong Un can understand that a timely launch can provoke an adverse reaction from the United States and its partners,” he said.

Instead, Park suggested, Pyongyang may turn to lower-level actions to try to grab the attention of the new US president.

“There is a great possibility that Pyongyang will target South Korea,” he said. “I could judge that it is safer to create tension on the Korean peninsula.”