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BANGKOK (BLOOMBERG) – With the intensification of Thai protests against the monarchy, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s grip on power is increasingly tenuous.
A poll released on Sunday (October 25) by Bangkok’s Suan Dusit University showed that more than 62 percent of participants said that discontent with Prayuth was the key reason for the recent demonstrations.
The former army chief has ruled Thailand for more than six years, took power in a coup in 2014 and returned as prime minister after last year’s elections under a constitution drawn up by his military regime.
So far, Prayut has refused to resign in the face of repeated deadlines set by protesters to resign. During a special session of parliament this week, he said the government would restart a stalled process to amend the constitution in November and accused many lawmakers of having “little memory.”
“If he didn’t take power in 2014, what would happen?” he told Parliament on Tuesday. “Would there be riots in Thailand? Did you forget all the things that happened before I entered? Did you forget all the chaos, all the corruption?”
But even if Prayut resigns, the protesters say they will go nowhere until the political system designed by the royalist elite also disappears.
That means they will continue to push for their other demands – a more democratic constitution and more accountability for King Maha Vajiralongkorn.
Same problems
“The protest movement will not end until we meet our three demands,” Jatupat Boonpattararaksa, a key protest leader, said in a telephone interview.
“Even if Prayut resigns, someone like Prayut will replace him and we will go back to the same problems again. All changes in government, statutes and monarchy must occur at the same time.”
The growing determination of key protesters shows that there is no easy short-term solution to ending the movement. They adopted Hong Kong-style tactics to keep the police off balance, prompting Prayut to lift the state of emergency in Bangkok last week after authorities struggled to enforce.
Like the protests in Hong Kong, which made demands for democracy that threatened an entrenched power, the Thai protesters seek to topple the royalist elite that has ruled the country for much of its history.
While China managed to stop large-scale protests by implementing a repressive national security law, Thailand’s leaders potentially face greater risk with a more aggressive response.
Any action leading to bloodshed, which has occurred throughout Thailand’s history, most recently in 2010, could further damage an economy dependent on trade and tourism already recovering from the pandemic. Thailand’s benchmark SET index has fallen nearly 24 percent this year, the most in Asia.
Upper hand
Prayut would only consider resignation if the government loses legitimacy due to the use of force against protesters or an economic crisis, according to Professor Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, head of the Government Department at the Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University.
“The government for now still has the upper hand,” he said.
Even if Mr. Prayut goes, the system that allowed him to take power without running for election is still in place. The constitution now gives the 250-member Senate, which is appointed by the military, one vote for prime minister along with the 500-member lower house, stacking the odds in favor of establishment candidates.
Prayut’s possible replacements include Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who were nominated for Prime Minister during the last elections.
But if they don’t gather enough support, the letter allows the possibility of an “outside” candidate running, and analysts say it could include someone like Apirat Kongsompong, a former army chief who now works for the palace.
“The system was designed to keep the system in power, so they are unlikely to do anything to change that structure,” said Professor Punchada Sirivunnabood, an associate professor of politics at Mahidol University near Bangkok.
“They can agree with some changes to the constitution or the resignation of the government, but not with both.”
The final demand for changes in the monarchy is the most ambitious. Protesters have long broken taboos about publicly criticizing the royal family, with demands that the monarch no longer endorse the coups, provide transparency on how funds are spent and get rid of laws that stifle discussions about the family. real.
Global reach
The protesters have begun to present their case on the world stage: on Monday, they sent a letter to the German Embassy in Bangkok asking the government in Berlin to investigate the king, who spends much of his time in the European country, for violations. taxes and visas. there.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said authorities were examining the problems and warned there would be “immediate consequences” if they found something illegal.
The palace has not commented on the protesters’ demands or comments from the German authorities. Calls to the Royal Household Office seeking comment went unanswered Tuesday.
“Student demand for monarchy reform is the least likely to be met,” said Professor Christopher Ankersen, associate professor at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University’s School of Professional Studies.
“It is not evident that this king is interested in agreeing with them. It is difficult to imagine him convinced to ‘withdraw’ from the scene, renounce day to day control of the kingdom or live the rest of his days as a true monarch.”
Still, protest organizers like Jatupat believe they have momentum on their side despite the great odds.
“Every time we hold a demonstration, there are more and more people joining,” Jatupat said. “People are optimistic that there will be changes.”
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