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PARIS: As he battles the twin crises of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and the resurgence of Islamist attacks, French President Emmanuel Macron faces a watershed moment that will determine the success of his presidency and even his chances of re-election .
Macron came to power in 2017 with a wave of optimism that he was a transformative leader who would bring much-needed reform to France and restore his confidence as an actor on the world stage.
But for two years he has been beset by a succession of crises, first from 2018 to 2019, more than a year of protests by the “yellow vests” against his reforms, and then a crippling national strike last winter over changes in the French pension system.
And just as the strikes subsided and Macron began to speak confidently about what was to come in the “second act” of his term, the world was hit by the coronavirus pandemic, which forced a national shutdown.
As France began to recover from the economic impact of that lockdown, the virus re-emerged, forcing Macron to announce a new lockdown last week.
The country is now in shock after the beheading of a teacher and the murder of three people in a church, attacks that have been attributed to radical Islamists and that have pushed the fight against terrorism to the top of the agenda. The motives for the murder of a priest in Lyon on Saturday are still unclear.
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The current period is the most difficult for Macron since he came to power, said Bruno Cautres, a political researcher at the Paris-based Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (CEVIPOF).
Faced with the protests of the “yellow vests”, the French leader had the “political capacity” to respond to the demands and proposed a package worth 10 billion euros, he said.
“This permanent pressure does not offer us a respite,” admitted an adviser to the Macron administration, who asked not to be named.
“We have lost control of the agenda.”
‘SUCCESSION OF CRISIS’
No one can blame Macron for the emergence of the pandemic, but the government is under pressure from critics who accuse him of not having prepared for the second wave.
“The virus is circulating in France at a speed that not even the most pessimistic forecasts anticipated,” the French leader said in a speech to the nation announcing the new blockade, prompting an outcry from doctors who had in fact warned about such a scenario. .
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And while France is united in its outrage over the deadly attacks, there are questions about why the security services did not observe the assailants and a debate about whether its strategy against Islamist radicalism is too harsh or too soft.
For nearly two years, Macron has been unable to impose his own agenda in the face of rapidly changing events, Cautres said.
“The French have the impression that they are going through a succession of crises that never go away.”
‘WORLD’S WORST JOB’
As France enjoyed a relatively normal summer, unaware of the ferocity of the coronavirus wave that was to follow, Macron hoped to regain the initiative with a € 100 billion relaunch plan and a “live with the virus” strategy. .
However, since then, attempts to advance an ambitious green policy agenda, economic change, and reform of France’s pension system have been hampered by external factors.
This is a particular concern for a president who has never enjoyed great popularity, with the latest Ifop poll giving him a 38 percent approval rating, and whose party failed in local polls earlier this year.
Eyes are already focused on the 2022 presidential election, where Macron’s most likely challenger will be far-right leader Marine Le Pen. He hopes to avoid the same fate of a period as predecessors Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande.
But if he is to be victorious, the French leader needs to “finally get results,” said prominent political commentator Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet.
“If the health situation does not improve by the end of the year or early 2021, it will be really very difficult for him. He will be directly responsible.”
“In this anxiety-provoking moment, Emmanuel Macron probably has the worst job in the world.”
But political analyst Pascal Perrineau said that even if the majority of French people “were not convinced by the president and the majority, less by the opposition.”
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