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After years of bringing the Philippines closer to China, President Rodrigo Duterte appears to be leaning toward the United States.
The 75-year-old leader on Tuesday gave his strongest defense to date of a 2016 arbitration ruling in favor of the Philippines that said Beijing’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea violated international law. Addressing the United Nations General Assembly, Duterte said the decision “is now part of international law, beyond compromise and beyond the reach of passing governments to dilute, diminish or abandon.”
“We strongly reject attempts to undermine it,” Duterte said, without naming China. “We welcome the growing number of states that have endorsed the award and what it represents: the triumph of reason over recklessness, law over disorder, friendship over ambition.”
Duterte had resisted raising the court’s ruling after he took power in 2016, embracing closer ties with China and announcing a “separation” from the United States, his country’s biggest military ally for decades. But in recent months his government has started to backtrack towards the United States, which remains very popular with Filipinos, as Beijing has increased assertiveness in the South China Sea and the Philippine economy suffers due to the COVID-19 pandemic. .
There is now “more room for critics of China to be heard and to have influence,” said Malcolm Cook, visiting principal investigator at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and coordinator of its project in the Philippines, adding that officials known to be more aggressive towards China. have come to the fore as Duterte has re-branded anti-American rhetoric. “The weights in the Philippine foreign policy balance for good relations with the United States and good relations with China have shifted this year in favor of the United States.”
In June, the Philippines suspended its decision to end a 22-year agreement that facilitates joint military exercises with the US, while also beginning to mount criticism of China’s moves in disputed waters. Duterte this month pardoned a U.S. Marine convicted in 2015 of killing a transgender Filipina.
This week, the Philippines welcomed the United States and other nations to play a role in maintaining security in the South China Sea, following a similar statement from Vietnam earlier this month. China has accused the United States of intervening in territorial disputes, calling it “the biggest driver of the militarization of the South China Sea.”
“I can swear to you that the Western powers will be in the South China Sea,” Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin told lawmakers at a hearing in Manila on Monday. “We believe in the balance of power, that the freedom of the Filipino people depends on the balance of power in the South China Sea.”
Philippine officials have framed the recent moves as a reflection of the country’s independent foreign policy rather than on the side of one particular camp. The United States’ alliance with the Philippines is the oldest in the region, with a mutual defense treaty signed in 1951 that stipulates that either nation will respond militarily in the event of an attack on the other.
Duterte “defends the Philippine national interest and the interest of no other country,” said presidential spokesman Harry Roque in a text message. Earlier this month, Roque told reporters that Duterte may have pardoned the US Marine to win favor in an effort to gain access to coronavirus vaccines.
The quest to secure a vaccine shows that Duterte is not leaving Beijing: He said this month that he would prioritize China and Russia in obtaining a Covid-19 vaccine over Western pharmaceutical companies, which require cash advances in exchange for supplies. The Philippines has been hit by the highest number of infections in Southeast Asia, with more than 291,000 known cases, and its economy is forecast to fall as much as 6.6% this year.
Drawn to china
Duterte is “hedging his bets more at a time when he wants to keep various options open for vaccine access and the Philippines is under more pressure from China in the South China Sea,” said Peter Mumford, head of practice for the Southeast. and South Asia in risk consulting Eurasia Group. “Duterte is ideologically more attracted to China than the United States, but his foreign policy is also driven by political and economic pragmatism.”
Given China’s recent stance in the sea of disputes, it remains a difficult task for Duterte to convince interested parties that he does not pose a threat to the Philippine national security, said Rommel Ong, a retired rear admiral in the Philippine Navy and professor. from the Ateneo de Manila University. school of government.
In recent months, the Philippines has accused Beijing of inspecting waters claimed by both countries, using its coast guard to seize fishing equipment near a disputed bank, announcing new coral reef research facilities and aiming a laser gun. to a Philippine Navy ship. What’s more, China’s promise of billions of dollars pledged by China for infrastructure has not materialized.
“If China had followed through on its investment promises and been less aggressive in its actions in the South China Sea, the president would be in a better position to convince various domestic stakeholders to align with his pro-China stance,” said Ong .
© 2020 Bloomberg LP
