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Tell me quietly, but Diogo Jota could be one of the smartest signings of Jürgen Klopp’s tenure at Liverpool to date. He may not arrive with the genuine world-class status or dynamism of Thiago Alcântara, but in terms of what this team needs at the moment, a player of his type is absolutely top of the list.
It is an incredibly complex position to buy, because the demands are very specific and therefore the pool of viable options is relatively miniscule. They must simultaneously possess the technical and physical attributes to adequately fill multiple positions, and be able to perform at a level where there is no great decline in the quality of Liverpool’s first-choice attacking trio, be willing to accept a rotating role (at less to begin with), and ideally young enough that there is significant scope for further development.
Jota is one of those extremely rare beasts that apparently makes ticks all of those boxes, so while £ 41 million (plus add-ons, which could go up to £ 45 million) may seem overkill for a player who won’t immediately evict any of the top three, it’s a price that it is worth paying in full. Address one of the few remaining weaknesses in the Liverpool squad, all the more so given that Liverpool will actually only pay less than 10% of the fee for the first year.
Crucially, at 23, he is of an age where he could become a long-term successor to Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané, or Roberto Firmino, should he continue on an upward trajectory under the guidance of Klopp and his staff (curiously , Pep Lijnders was said to have influenced the deal’s achievement having had discussions with close contacts in Porto about Jota’s potential.
All Salah, Mané and Firmino have contracts that run through the summer of 2023, by which time they will all be in their 30s, and Jota will only enter what should be their peak years, so it makes perfect sense to bring in a player who can contribute now, but also contribute to the long-term plan. And of course he already has a couple of seasons of Premier League experience under his belt.
Stylistically, he is more similar to Mané in that he plays predominantly from the left with a natural tendency to drift in the frame, is very fast while carrying the ball, and is also remarkably adept at finishing on either foot. Like Mané did in Southampton, Jota has also played in the middle at times for Wolves, joining Liverpool after scoring 16 goals in all competitions last season (Mané scored 14 in his final season at Southampton). The parallels don’t end there either.
In 2019/20, Jota’s expected goals without penalty stood at 0.46 by 90, placing him 13th in the Premier League * and just below Mané (0.48) and Firmino (0.49), which which gives an indication of how effective he was in getting into top goal scoring positions. By comparison, Ismaïla Sarr, one of Liverpool’s main alternatives to the Jota, recorded just 0.26 expected goals without penalty, albeit for a significantly lower Watford side.
Like Firmino, Jota underperformed xG’s last season substantially (seven league goals of 12.02 xG), but his finish in 2018/19 was almost exactly in line with xG (nine league goals of 8.91 xG) So if you go back to that kind of level in the future while playing for a much better, more attack-oriented team, you have the ability to regularly exceed double figures in the league, depending on playing time.
He also averaged more successful dribbles by 90 (6.99) than Mané (5.58), Salah (4.01), and Firmino (3.08), while ranking seventh in the league in progressive runs (3.9 by 90, as measured by WyScout).
Creatively, his underlying metrics aren’t that strong, posting 0.09 expected assists per 90, less than half of Mané (0.21) and well below Salah and Firmino (0.17), but again, that’s from playing on a team of the Wolves who only scored 51 league goals last season, and it’s an area of their game with plenty of room to work on over time.
Perhaps most encouraging is his pressing stats, as Jota averaged 4.97 successful pressure recoveries per 90 (winning the ball within five seconds of applying pressure) in the league last season, which falls only marginally below Mané (5.01 ), not far behind Salah (5.63) and a little behind Firmino (6.5). He’s a really solid base to work on, and it shows he already has that ability to steal possession high up the field that Klopp values so highly.
Overall, then, the numbers paint an overwhelmingly positive picture. It is by no means the finished product at this stage, but it has many of the tools to transform itself into a true jewel for Liverpool in the years to come.
It’s not just the volume of end product he’s produced for Wolves (34 goal contributions in the last two seasons), but the way he tends to score that offers an idea of the type of player Liverpool are getting.
Here, scoring his second goal of a magnificent hat-trick against Espanyol in the first leg of the Europa League round of 32 in Molineux, Jota’s diagonal run exactly resembles the kind of outside-in movement that Mané and Salah exhibit regularly with such threat. for Liverpool.
As soon as Matt Doherty cuts inside from the right, Jota is on the move, diving from behind to grab the ball in the area. His shot is infallible, slamming him into the roof of the net from a narrow angle while under pressure from the defender.
It’s a recurring theme with Jota, specifically targeting the gap between right-back and center-back. In the Wolves’ thrilling 4-3 win over Leicester City in January 2019, Jota’s first hat-trick goal proved it perfectly – he came between Danny Simpson and Wes Morgan to stab home a João Moutinho’s center from outside the six-yard box (where many of his goals usually come from). It may seem like a simple goal, but that anticipation, timing of the run, and tenacity to beat defenders to the ball is a very effective skill.
Although his attendance numbers are not remarkable, he is also more than capable of provoking something out of nowhere from deeper areas when there is apparently little or no immediate danger to the opposition.
Here, setting up Raúl Jiménez’s winner in the 3-2 win over Tottenham Hotspur, Jota initially picks the ball up on the edge of the Lobos’ defensive third and blatantly tosses it over Lucas Moura’s head before leaving Serge Aurier in the dust.
After accelerating over the midway line, he continues to aggressively drive Davinson Sánchez and Eric Dier back, forcing them back before cutting inward, raising his head and playing selflessly on the lead of Jiménez, who backs up and finishes brilliantly in the corner more remote. . It’s a sublime play, all started by Jota taking possession in what is apparently the left-back position.
That wasn’t a unique genius though, as he did something very similar in a 2-2 away draw against Brighton in December last season. Quickly exchanging passes with Jonny Otto at the midfield line, Jota again drives into the infield, before this time releasing Jiménez down the left.
As soon as he does, he continues his run to the area, this time diving between center and left back to touch Jiménez’s low center from close range for what was Jota’s first of the day.
Whether down the left or middle in the standard 4-3-3, behind the main forward in a 4-2-3-1 or even in a freer role, swapping positions on the front line, Jota Arrival opens a host of new options for Liverpool in a variety of different formations that they haven’t had so far, giving Klopp the ability to rest freely and rotate in attack.
Like many Klopp signings, it will likely take a while to adjust and adjust to the nuances of Liverpool’s system, and for the first few weeks it can be a case of using it primarily from the bench until it is up to speed. However, once the Champions League returns and the mid-week games start rolling relentlessly, that’s when their presence will prove invaluable.
There weren’t many avenues for Liverpool to realistically improve on what they already had heading into this window, but with Thiago and now Jota welcome into the fold, they’ve managed to go out and do just that.
* Statistical comparisons that include players who participated for at least 1000 minutes in the Premier League last season.
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