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TOKYO: The drop in the number of pregnancies and marriages in Japan during the coronavirus pandemic is likely to intensify a demographic crisis in the rapidly aging nation.
Japan has the oldest society in the world, and more than 35 percent of its population is expected to be 65 or older by 2050, a trend that poses risks to economic growth and drains government finances.
“I think the spread of the coronavirus is causing a lot of people to worry about getting pregnant, giving birth and raising babies,” Tetsushi Sakamoto, the minister in charge of responses to declining birth rates in Japan, said in a press conference last Friday (October 23).
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Recently released official data showed that the number of reported pregnancies in the three months through July fell 11.4 percent from the previous year, while the number of marriages during the same period fell 36.9 percent. The sharp decline in marriages is important because the majority of babies in Japan are born within marriage.
“This is very serious because the negative effects could persist, with the economic recession leading to fewer marriages and then fewer births,” said Hideo Kumano, chief executive economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
FILE PHOTO: A newborn baby wearing a face shield to protect against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is seen at the Wise Ladies’ Clinic maternity hospital in Satte, north of Tokyo, Japan, in this photo taken by Kyodo on May 10. 2020. (Mandatory Credit Kyodo / via REUTERS)
The pandemic has exacerbated a pre-existing downward trend in the birth rate, which former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a “national crisis.” The number of births in 2019 dropped 5.8 percent to around 865,000, the lowest annual figure in history.
The Japan Pediatric Association has warned that the fall in the birth rate could accelerate in ten years due to the pandemic, a trend that could not only end pediatric medicine, but would have far-reaching effects.
The International Monetary Fund has forecast global economic growth of around 5.2 percent in 2021, but expects Japan’s growth to be closer to 2.3 percent. Kumano said that depopulation was the main factor in the different perspectives.
A recent Nikkei newspaper survey showed that most of the 22 economists surveyed expect the Japanese economy not to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, indicating a prolonged headwind against marriage.
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Lawmakers are struggling to address the crisis, covering fertility treatment with health insurance and doubling the upper limit of a one-time government allowance for newlyweds to 600,000 yen (US $ 5,726).
“There are various predictions about what will happen if the number of births continues to decline, but one thing is for sure. Current systems, including the social security system, will no longer be functional,” Masaji Matsuyama, former minister who oversees the decline issue of births. he told Reuters.
“It will be a crisis in which the very existence of the nation as we know it is at stake.”
