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The researchers say that keeping those over 50 in solitary confinement longer and requiring people to prove their age when they are away from home is “the safest way to close the lockdown.”
A study from the University of Warwick found that a ‘progressive release strategy’ was the best option to end the blockade introduced to slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus.
The researchers’ proposed strategy is based on the fact that COVID-19 death rates among 50-year-olds are 20 times higher than deaths among 20-year-olds.
The study authors wrote that police officers would need to have the power to fine those trapped who break the age rule to ensure compliance.
In an extreme example, set by the study authors, based on Chinese data, they say releasing those over 50 without a vaccine could kill an additional 40,000 people.
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The researchers’ proposed strategy is based on the fact that COVID-19 deaths among those 50 and older are 20 times greater than deaths among those 20 and older.
This chart shows the coronavirus “relative risk of death” for each age group compared to those in their 20s to 30s, based on release of the blockade before a vaccine is available. Not to be confused with mortality rate.
In the ‘Age, Risk of Death, and Designing an Exit Strategy’ study, the Warwick researchers shared five benefits of basing the end of block on age.
They say an age-based statement acknowledges that “we cannot wait indefinitely to reopen the economy” and that it is the “surest way to do it before a vaccine is available.”
Andrew Oswald, professor of economics and behavioral sciences at Warwick, said people over 50 “don’t realize the danger they are about to be in.”
‘Our age risk charts must be understood by everyone. They show very clearly that younger people are much less at risk of dying from COVID-19 than older citizens.
“Any block release policy that is not designed around this” age gradient “in human coronavirus risk will have dangerous consequences,” Oswald said.
The authors say young, healthy people are best at surviving the virus and should be released in the first wave of an “age-related” block release program.
The researchers say older people should stay locked up longer since “younger people are much, much safer.”
Law enforcement is a concern raised by researchers in their article, saying that people may be reluctant to stay indoors longer.
‘How would an age-based release rule apply? Presumably, police officers should have the right to fine those trapped who break the age rule.
“As we have explained elsewhere, the vast majority of citizens in the UK have driver’s licenses that would allow a police officer to verify his date of birth,” they wrote.
They added that a continuous release of age poses the lowest risk and reduces the chance of people calling back for a second round of blocks.
“In principle, youth should be able to remain outside once released,” the researchers say.
Several studies have demonstrated the fact that the risk of death from coronavirus increases with age.
People under the age of 50 have less than a 0.5 percent chance of death from COVId-19, but it increases to 1.3 percent for those over 50.
It becomes even higher as you get older, with a death rate of 3.6 percent for those over 60 and 8 percent for those over 70.
NHS expert Mike Fischer agrees that those over 50 should stay home during the coronavirus outbreak.
Official data, compiled by the National Intensive Care Audit and Research Center of the critical care units of the NHS, show that more than 54 percent of COVID-19 patients admitted for urgent care are between 50 and 69 years.
Almost three-quarters of critically ill people are overweight or obese.
There are five tests described by the government that would allow the blockade to be lifted, including the reduction of the infection rate and the availability of tests.
The tests also include ensuring that the NHS has sufficient capacity, a sustained drop in daily deaths, PPE is available, and the measures will not risk a second spike in infections.
Not everyone agrees that this is the best approach, Dr. Thomas House, a statistician at the University of Manchester, said young people may have a false sense of security.
“If younger people start to mix again and we see an increase in the prevalence of coronavirus infections, that will inevitably increase the number of cases in older people who are at the highest risk of dying once infected,” he told the Telegraph.
“ It is also likely that there are many younger people who have greatly increased the risk compared to others of their age due to factors that we have not yet been able to identify through epidemiological analysis and therefore would be seriously misled by the type of graphics proposed by the authors.
The Warwick team said the most difficult part could be convincing the public of the importance and benefit of a progressive release strategy.
“Strategies to generate public support for a continuous launch could include clear communication about the rationale for the strategy and online resources to help people understand their own personal risk profiles,” the team wrote in a statement.
This graph is an extreme example, using Chinese data to estimate the impact of an early release by each age group on coronavirus deaths in the UK. They found that the highest risk group is over 60 years and the lowest risk group is 20
Researchers say the oldest groups, including those over 70, should be the last to be released from the blockade, as age is a significant factor in COVID-19 survival rate.
Nick Powdthavee, professor of behavioral economics at Warwick Business School, said: “We believe that an age-based strategy along the lines we describe has the potential to strike the right balance between epidemiology and economics.”
However, the researchers do not believe that older people should be left without a job, but should use technology such as Zoom and Microsoft Teams.
“Far from being on the shelf, older workers can play a vital role as supervisors and mentors using the communication technologies that have been highlighted during the shutdown,” he said.
The researchers say an application could be developed that provides people with their own ‘risk’ for coronavirus using the latest epidemiological evidence.
“We appreciate that a release of younger people could cause resentment among older people than the released age group,” they wrote.
“To reassure them, however, older groups could be informed when their turn would come, and they could be encouraged to review a government-sponsored website detailing the exact pattern of age risk for the virus.”
They say that ‘one of the characteristics of COVID-19 is that younger people are much, much safer’; however, much of the global discussion on an ‘exit strategy’ does not exploit this ‘fundamental and potentially crucial knowledge’.
The document is available on the University of Warwick website.
