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NEW DELHI: Myanmar’s next general elections are scheduled for November 8, with more than 1,100 parliamentary seats to be decided in the Lower House, Upper House, and state and regional parliaments, and for ethnic entities.
The National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Union, Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), aligned with the Army, are the two most prominent parties to participate in the elections, along with several ethnic parties and other emerging challengers.
The elections will be a major test for State Councilor Aung San Suu Kyi, once an icon of democracy and human rights and now the face of a regime accused of genocide for its treatment of the Rohingya ethnic minority.
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The ruling NLD, led by Suu Kyi, is said to have decided to contest all parliamentary seats on its own, while the opposition USDP is exploring avenues for alliances, but has not won any so far.
In previous elections in 2015, most political groups focused on state and regional seats, leaving the main parliament largely for the NLD and USDP to contest.
This time, however, things will be different, as emerging political parties and ethnic parties have formed alliances. Therefore, none of the major parties is expected to win enough seats to form the government, putting the other parties in a “king-maker” position.
NLD STILL TO KEEP THE PROMISES
In 2015, the NLD scored a landslide victory by securing 390 of the 498 seats for both houses of the Union Parliament. The victory was achieved through promises of constitutional amendments for democratization, ethnic conflict resolution, and economic reforms.
The NLD has failed to deliver on either of these fronts: no constitutional reforms have been achieved and none were even attempted until last year, and then largely for the sake of appearances.
FILE PHOTO: A mother and child hold a National League for Democracy (NLD) party flag, amid coronavirus disease (COVID-19), they raised concerns during an election campaign rally in Yangon, Myanmar, on 8 September 2020. (REUTERS / Shwe Paw Mya Tin)
This was perhaps the result of the pragmatic relationship between the government and the military that dictates that neither side should put too much pressure on one’s interests.
The peace process also remains stagnant. The 21st Century Panglong Peace Conference, which began in 2016 to build dialogue between ethnic groups, met for the fourth time last week, but has taken few steps and remains hampered by ongoing conflicts in various ethnic areas.
Economically, it wasn’t until last year that the government made serious efforts to speed up reforms.
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Despite some attempts to encourage investment in the country, factors such as outdated regulations, insufficient infrastructure, and the government’s tarnished international reputation have prevented companies and investors from participating.
The European Union is also reportedly considering the possibility of imposing trade sanctions over the Rohingya crisis in Rakhine state, which could strip Myanmar of duty-free access, which could include the textile industry.
This would put hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk, many of them in areas that overwhelmingly voted for the NLD in 2015, such as Yangon and Mandalay.
NEW HOLIDAYS
In addition, the emergence of new parties, such as the Popular Party and the United Political Parties Alliance (UPPA), can generate votes that traditionally went to the NLD.
The Popular Party was founded in 2018 by Ko Ko Gyi, one of the leaders of the 1988 student protests against the military government. Many students at that time fled to the border areas or crossed the border for safety.
Myanmar Parliament Building in the capital Naypyidaw. (Photo: AFP / Ye Aung Thu)
When they returned, they reached out to the NLD and volunteered and worked for the NLD candidates in 2015, but their efforts were largely unappreciated.
The UPPA, for its part, was launched in February this year by nine political parties with the aim of generating changes through “collective force”.
NEW FACTORS IN THE 2020 ELECTIONS
All of these factors are likely to prevent the NLD from repeating its landslide victory of 2015. However, Suu Kyi remains the most popular leader in the country, and the NLD remains well-positioned to capture the majority of the total seats, although perhaps still below the majority required to form a government.
The USDP will also find its support base of military sympathizers divided due to newly founded parties, such as the Union Betterment Party (UBP) and the Democratic Party of National Politics (DPNP). Both were started by former army generals closely involved in the creation of the USDP.
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The alliance formed by ethnic parties, which in the 2015 elections were fragmented and largely disinterested in contesting the main union parliamentary seats, is another notable factor in this year’s elections.
With the exception of the National Arakan Party (ANP) and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), most of the parties within the ethnic groups – Karen, Mon, Chin, Kachin and Kayah – have formed a United Front in a they attempt to win majorities in their state parliaments, and secure a majority of the national parliament seats in their states.
In their opinion, the NLD has not done enough for the development of their respective ethnic states and therefore an alliance is the best way, either to secure a majority to form a government themselves or to build a government of coalition with whom it can guarantee ethnic rights and seek to form federal states in 2020.
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According to an estimate from a Myanmar media report, the NLD can win 40% of the seats, while ethnic parties can win 20%, opening the way for the majority.
Expectations of change in Myanmar’s political landscape have not long coincided with reality, but this year’s elections are sure to be a very different exercise than last time.
Tanmay Kadam is a freelance writer and researcher based in New Delhi, India. This comment first appeared on The Lowy Institute’s blog, The Interpreter.
