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SYDNEY: “Catching crabs on a hill” is a Cantonese expression that means that something is almost impossible.
Hong Kong’s prospects are so bleak. But it would be a mistake to discard them. There is a dynamism in local Hong Kong culture, reflected in its terse proverbs, that may still save the day.
The events in Hong Kong during 2020 cannot be understood without recapping the history of 2019.
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Its people rejected a proposed extradition treaty, fearing that anyone found guilty of a crime could be deported to mainland China and sentenced under mainland law if it passes. Hundreds of thousands marched.
When a small group looted the Legislative Council and the representative office of the national government, the protests went beyond local concern.
China’s sovereignty was questioned, but for a time Beijing relied on Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam to resolve the issues.
BEYOND THE EXTRADITION TREATY
The withdrawal of the extradition treaty did not satisfy the protesters.
They increased their demands to include an independent investigation into police brutality, amnesty for all those arrested, retraction of the characterization of the protests as “riots” and the resignation of Carrie Lam.
Students gather to protest after school in Lok Fu, Hong Kong, on September 23, 2019 (File Photo: REUTERS / Jorge Silva)
The protests spread. The November 2019 district elections showed a deep gap between pro and anti-government forces and opposition candidates won 392 of 452 seats.
Some groups called for independence or the restoration of British rule, neither of which has been an option. The Basic Law of Hong Kong begins with “The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is an inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China”.
The protesters also called for democracy and won the support of the local and international media. Genuine democracy has never been realized in Hong Kong, despite the efforts of outgoing British Governor Chris Patten.
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But young leaders’ demand for “democracy” is vague. It reflects multiple reasons for dissent and popular distrust of the government, including attacks on the local language and culture, and resentment towards mainland people moving to live and work in Hong Kong.
CAN ANYTHING BE DONE?
The Legislative Council, which should respond to popular opinion, is proving incapable of passing reforms or finding a middle ground, and Carrie Lam is constrained by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Named by a Beijing-backed committee, to quote another compelling Cantonese expression, it is a “two-headed serpent” serving two masters. The Liaison Office of the central government of China coordinates pro-Beijing political groups and leaders and mobilizes patriotic demonstrations.
People wear masks, following the COVID-19 outbreak, in Hong Kong’s central business district on December 1, 2020 (Photo: REUTERS / Tyrone Siu).
COVID-19 overwhelmed China, Hong Kong and then the rest of the world in early 2020 and the Hong Kong police banned the protests and enforced social distancing rules. The protests died down but did not disappear.
Despite official bans, thousands of people gathered to celebrate the anniversary of the June 4, 1989 massacre during the Tiananmen Square protests.
The day before the 23rd anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to Chinese sovereignty, Beijing passed a national security law for Hong Kong. The law prohibits acts of secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign forces.
Under the terms of this law, a central government office has jurisdiction over security cases when they are referred by the Hong Kong government. The protesters, fearing the worst, called on the United States and the United Kingdom to act.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT IN HONG KONG
The United States condemned China and announced sanctions on Hong Kong leaders.
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Many businesses are closing due to protests and COVID-19 restrictions. Hong Kong’s role as a major transportation and finance hub is being affected.
Real GDP growth for 2020 is forecast to sink to negative 6.1%.
Looking ahead, the government predicts that the mainland economy will continue to grow strongly while Hong Kong’s exports to other markets are likely to be affected by the international COVID-19 situation, China-US relations, and other geopolitical tensions. .
Locally, unemployment has stabilized at 6.4 percent, cushioned to some extent by government aid measures.
On November 11, the National People’s Congress of China passed a resolution allowing Hong Kong to remove legislators who are seen as endangering national security.
Beijing immediately disqualified four opposition lawmakers and the remaining 15 opposition members resigned.
HANGING THE DEVELOPMENTAL CARROT
Addressing a Legislative Council without opposition representation, Carrie Lam’s policy speech on November 25 assured residents that Beijing is committed to reviving the ailing economy.
Hong Kong Executive Director Carrie Lam prepares to deliver her speech as slogans saying “Five demands, not one less” are projected on the wall of the Legislative Council in Hong Kong on October 16, 2019 (Photo: AP / Kin Cheung).
He listed 200 projects ranging from parking lots and dental services to new roles for the Territory in the Greater Bay Area development plan for the Pearl River Delta.
Cooperation with the mainland would be deepened through new joint trading schemes between the stock exchanges, the mainland’s investment in local technology companies, and Hong Kong’s investment in the Zhuhai airport.
Lam was unable to address the need to mend political divisions in the community and rebuild relations between the government and the opposition.
These budget measures alone cannot achieve Lam’s announced goal of “restoring the confidence of the people.” The latest survey by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute reveals that the CEO’s popularity rating is 33.5% and the satisfaction rating for all major government policies is negative.
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Popular protests will continue and evolve in the face of increasingly tough government action.
While there may be no sympathetic leadership and popular parliamentary representation in Hong Kong, people’s spirits remain high.
As the local saying goes: “When the horse dies, you get off and walk.”
Jocelyn Chey is visiting professor at the University of Sydney. He was previously Australian Consul General in Hong Kong. This comment first appeared on the East Asia Forum. Read it here. This article is part of a series of EAF special features about 2020 in review and the year to come.
